Private Market Update August 2026
$100B is the new $10B as late-stage value creation accelerates
Not that long ago a $10 billion valuation sat at the upper echelon of the private market and a $100 billion valuation was unheard of. According to Forge’s funding round dataset, ByteDance became the first private company to cross the $100 billion threshold in December 2020.1 Since then, the population of mega-cap private companies has grown rapidly, reflecting both the maturity of private markets and investors' willingness to fund companies at an extraordinary scale before they go public.
The pace of this expansion becomes even more striking when viewed through the lens of time. Reaching a $100 billion valuation used to take decades. Companies founded before 2011, including SpaceX, Stripe and Waymo, took 16 years on average to achieve this milestone. By contrast, today’s largest AI companies, including Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI, have done it in roughly five years. This compression in time-to-scale represents one of the most significant shifts the private market has experienced.
| Company | Years to $100B |
| xAI | 2.3 |
| Anthropic | 4.5 |
| ByteDance | 8.2 |
| OpenAI | 8.3 |
| Revolut | 11.1 |
| Stripe | 11.9 |
| Databricks | 12.3 |
| Waymo | 17.1 |
| SpaceX | 19.6 |
Forge Data as of 07/31/2026
This change is being driven by two forces: technology and capital. AI-native businesses reach meaningful revenue, user adoption and strategic relevance faster than the previous generations of tech companies. At the same time, growth capital no longer comes solely from traditional venture investors. Sovereign wealth funds, private equity, corporate investors and crossover funds are all competing for exposure to category-defining companies, deepening the pool of capital able to support larger valuations earlier in a company's lifecycle.
Private markets are also starting to behave more like public markets. Valuations are no longer set only at primary fundraising events. Tender offers, secondary transactions and other liquidity mechanisms now deliver far more frequent price discovery, allowing company valuations to adjust on a more regular basis than prior cycles allowed. As liquidity has increased, so has the speed at which private market prices can respond to new information and investor demand.
For companies still valued above $100 billion, the role of the IPO is getting harder to define. Historically, going public was the main value creation event for investors. Forge PriceTM data now suggests a meaningful share of that appreciation happens while companies are still private. Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks and Stripe have all posted substantial valuation growth over the past two years, well before any public listing.
The magnitude and recency of this appreciation are particularly notable. Two years ago, these companies were valued at markedly different levels, yet each has since generated significant valuation gains. The eventual IPO may end up being less of a value creation event and more a liquidity milestone. Listings of companies like Anthropic or OpenAI could still rank among the most consequential in history, but public market investors may be arriving after much of the value has already been captured.
The open question: does the next wave of $100+ billion IPOs break this pattern or reinforce it? If current trends hold, public market investors may increasingly find themselves participating after much of the value creation has already occurred. The answer will have important implications for investors, founders and capital allocators as the line between private and public markets continues to blur.
Private market gains met post-IPO pressure
Performance in the private market split sharply in July. The Forge Private Market Index (FPMI), which tracks private company constituents, rose 9.3%. The Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI), which also captures public post-IPO exposure, fell -4.2% as SpaceX weighed on the benchmark. Public market comparables were also mixed: SPY was flat, while QQQ declined -6.6% amid pressure in technology and chip-linked equities.2
That divergence defined the month. FPMI was lifted by outsized moves in a handful of private companies, while FAPMI was pulled lower by public-listing pressure from SpaceX (-36.6%), whose post-IPO trading overwhelmed otherwise positive contributions elsewhere in the cap-weighted benchmark.
Lack of public market exposure helped FPMI carry the month
SambaNova Systems (+142.9%) was the single largest contributor to FPMI, adding 6.5% to the equal-weighted benchmark. The move coincided with SambaNova’s July 8 announcement that it had completed the first close of a $1.0 billion Series F financing at an $11.0 billion post-money valuation.3 Neuralink (+98.4%) added 1.8% and Zipline International (+59.5%) added 1.3%.
The broader pattern was positive returns from a diverse set of companies rather than the more concentrated AI trade recently seen in the public market.4 Ayar Labs (+17.3%), Lyten (+15.0%), Anduril (+20%), Harness (+35.7%) and Rippling (+17.7%) also contributed positively.
The downside was more fragmented. Lightmatter (-16.8%) subtracted 0.6%, while Airtable (-24.5%), Postman (-24.9%), Kraken (-19.8%) and Tanium (-12.8%) also held the index back.
FAPMI pressure centered on SpaceX
FAPMI's decline was driven primarily by SpaceX, which subtracted 7.1% from the cap-weighted benchmark. The pressure followed a difficult July for SPCX shares, reportedly losing one-third of its value during the month, with additional scrutiny ahead of the company’s first post-IPO earnings report and insider share unlocks.5
That one company outweighed several positive cap-weighted contributors. Anduril added 1.2% to FAPMI, Neuralink 1.1%, Fanatics (+27.4%) 0.4%, Zipline International 0.3%, Rippling 0.2%, Vercel (+27.2%) 0.2% and Deel (+9%) 0.1%.
Other detractors reinforced the theme that July was a month of issuer-level price discovery. Cerebras (-10.1%) subtracted 0.4% from FAPMI and Kraken, Plaid (-32.8%), Lightmatter, Airtable, Postman and Polymarket (-5.4%) also weighed on the index.
Private market momentum contrasts public market reality
July’s performance suggests that private market valuations remain responsive to company-specific catalysts, while newly public issuers continue to face heightened investor scrutiny. As a result, dispersion across both private and post-IPO companies will potentially remain a feature of the current market environment.
| Index | L1M | L3M | L12M |
| FPMI | 9.3% | 29.4% | 99.3% |
| FAPMI | -4.2% | 14.8% | 46.9% |
| SPY | 0.0% | 4.2% | 19.5% |
| QQQ | -6.6% | 3.1% | 22.3% |
Forge Data as of 07/31/2026
Buy-side indications of interests retreat below 50% after strong start to 2026
Buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) accounted for 48% of total new and updated IOIs on the Forge marketplace in July, down from 57% in June, the first month since late 2023 in which buy-side activity hasn’t represented a majority of marketplace interest. The decline follows a strong run of buyer engagement during the first half of 2026, when buy-side IOIs consistently accounted for more than half of activity. Despite the pullback, buyer participation remains broadly in line with historical averages and well above the lows of the 2022 market downturn when buy-side percentage was routinely below 40%. The shift toward a more balanced mix of buyer and seller interest may reflect growing shareholder willingness to explore liquidity options as private market sentiment has improved.
Secondary market pricing remains resilient despite July pullback
The median secondary market trade on Forge transacted at a 7% discount to the last primary funding round in July, compared with par pricing in June. That’s a modest set back from the strongest pricing environment since early 2022, the last time the median hit par, though median transaction values remained well above the steep discounts that were typical of late 2022 and 2023 (~50% discount at the median). Changes across the distribution were mixed but generally reflected somewhat softer pricing conditions. The 25th percentile slipped from -32% to -34%, while the 10th percentile declined from -50% to -57%, indicating wider discounts among the most heavily discounted transactions. At the upper end of the distribution, the 75th percentile fell from 23% to 7% and the 90th percentile declined from 79% to 27%, suggesting fewer transactions clearing at substantial premiums to the last primary round. Even with the month-over-month moderation, July pricing stayed broadly consistent with the past years pricing recovery. The median transaction continued to price near par, indicating that investors remain willing to transact at valuations much closer to primary round marks than was typical during the market downturn.
Shane Larkin brings over 15 years of private market experience spanning secondaries and venture capital. Prior to Forge, he co-founded Liquid Stock where he led sourcing, diligence and fund operations. Earlier he served as a...
Shane Larkin brings over 15 years of private market experience spanning secondaries and venture capital. Prior to Forge, he co-founded Liquid Stock where he led sourcing, diligence and fund operations. Earlier he served as a Vice President in private equity at Stifel Financial. Shane began his investment career at Thomas Weisel Partners in equity research. He holds an MBA from Cornell University, as well as an engineering degree.
