Private Market Update June 2026
SpaceX bolsters IPO momentum as new issuer pipeline fills up
After more than two decades as a private company and years as the most actively followed issuer in the secondary market,1 SpaceX completed one of the most anticipated IPOs in history on June 12.2 The company raised $75 billion to support its AI and space data center ambitions, and shares traded as high as $176.52 before closing their first day at $160.95, representing a gain of 19.2%.3 By most measures, the debut was a success and provided a significant boost to investor confidence in the 2026 IPO market.
For private market investors, the public debut of SpaceX represented one of the longest and most closely followed private-to-public journeys of the modern era. SpaceX first traded on Forge in November 2012 at $0.34 per share and carried a final Forge PriceTM of $128.84 prior to the company’s public debut.
While SpaceX's public debut captured headlines, the significance of the transaction extends beyond a single company. The process began with a confidential S-1 submission to the SEC on April 1 (no joke),4 reigniting hopes that a largely dormant technology IPO market could regain momentum.5 Investor enthusiasm accelerated after the company's public filing on May 20,6 which provided the first detailed look at the financial profile of the highest-valued private company ever.7
In a slightly unusual move, SpaceX set its IPO share price at $135.00 before the company began its IPO roadshow.8 From the public filing through its June 12 debut, SpaceX dominated conversations across both private and public markets.
More important than the mechanics of the offering for investors, however, may be its impact on the broader IPO pipeline. Shortly after month-end, Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO June 1,9 while reports indicated OpenAI had submitted a confidential filing to regulators.10 Together, those developments suggest investors may finally be seeing the IPO market that many expected at the beginning of the year.
The key question now is whether SpaceX represents a successful standalone event or the beginning of a sustained technology IPO cycle. With multiple high-profile issuers waiting in the wings, investors may not have to wait long for an answer.
Cerebras demonstrates demand beyond mega-cap issuers
While SpaceX dominated headlines, Cerebras may provide equally important insight into the health of the IPO market. Founded in 2015, the AI chip company is hardly a newcomer, but its public debut on May 14 offered an important test of investor demand for venture-backed technology companies beyond the largest private market names.
Cerebras shares first traded on Forge in September 2021 for $18.50,11 and the company went public almost five years later with its shares valued exactly 10 times higher at $185.00.12 Cerebras refiled its public S-1 on April 17,13 not long after SpaceX reignited IPO interest with news of its confidential filing. From there, Cerebras adhered to a tight four-week timeline to become a public company.
During that time, the last Forge Price was $113.50,14 in line with the company’s first IPO target price range of $115.00-$125.00 per share.15 As investor demand evolved, the IPO target price range was revised higher to $150.00-$160.00 per share.16 Further investor demand pushed the final IPO price to $185.00 per share.17
Public market investors responded enthusiastically. First day trading commenced on May 14 and reached a near frenzied pitch with a range of $300.00-$386.34 and a first day close at a resounding $311.07 per share. From first Forge trade to first day close, the share price for Cerebras increased over 1,580%.
If SpaceX demonstrated that public markets could absorb one of the largest IPOs in history, Cerebras demonstrated that investor appetite extends beyond the most recognizable private companies. Together, the two offerings provide some of the strongest evidence yet that demand for new technology issuers may be broadening.
A growing IPO pipeline
Momentum has continued to build following the successful debuts of SpaceX and Cerebras. In addition to Anthropic and OpenAI, Oura and Blockchain.com have both confidentially filed IPO paperwork with the SEC,18, 19 adding to the market momentum. This adds to the already-in-process list of Motive, which has a public S-1 on file,20 and Discord, Strava and Kraken, which have reportedly submitted confidential IPO filings.21, 22, 23
The breadth of the pipeline may prove just as important as the size of individual offerings. While companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could absorb significant amounts of public market capital, mid-sized offerings may help sustain issuance activity between larger transactions and create a more durable market environment.
Taken together, recent filings and successful offerings suggest 2026 is potentially shaping up to be one of the most active years for technology IPOs in recent memory.
Private market benchmarks strengthened meaningfully in May, with gains outpacing public market indices. The equal-weighted Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) rose 11.7%,24 while the cap-weighted Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) gained 12.6%.25 Public equities were also positive, with SPY up 5.3% and QQQ rising 10.6%.
Cerebras was the clearest driver of performance for the month, adding 9.03% to FPMI and 2.51% to FAPMI. As previously noted, the company priced its IPO at $185.00 per share and the shares began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker "CBRS” on May 14.
Anthropic was the largest visible contributor to FAPMI, adding 7.6% to the index. The move came in a month when Anthropic announced a $65 billion Series H financing at a $965 billion valuation,26 followed shortly after by a confidential draft S-1 submission to the SEC.
SpaceX also added support, contributing 0.6% to FAPMI basket after its S-1 became publicly available during the month. Lightmatter (+61.2%) was another standout, adding 1.2% to FPMI and reinforcing the month's concentration in AI infrastructure and semiconductor-linked private names. A couple of decliners limited the breadth of the move. Addepar (-27.1%) subtracted 0.5% from FPMI and Epic Games (-16.8%) was a detractor as well.
Taken together, private market performance in May marked a stronger and more concentrated advance than in April. With strength amongst AI and chips companies, but several sharp company-level decliners, it reinforced that private market performance continues to be shaped more by issuer-specific catalysts than by broad market moves alone.
| Index | L1M | L3M | L12M |
| FPMI | 11.7% | 11.4% | 86.7% |
| FAPMI | 12.6% | 15.0% | 75.0% |
| SPY | 5.3% | 10.6% | 29.8% |
| QQQ | 10.6% | 21.7% | 42.9% |
Forge Data through 05/31/2026
For six months running, the buy-side indications of interest percentage moved higher
Buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) accounted for 71% of total interest on the Forge marketplace in May, up from 69% in April. May marked only the third instance since January 2020 in which buy-side interest exceeded 70%, following December 2020 (73%) and December 2024 (74%). Since January 2020, the buy-side interest percentage hit a low of 26% in October 2022 and a high of 74% in December 2024.
Trade premiums were mixed with the 90th percentile experiencing the largest move
Trade premiums were mixed in May. The median (50th percentile) strengthened from -19% to -7%, while the lowest 10th percentile improved modestly from -58% to -54%. At the upper end, the 90th percentile trade premium decreased from 92% to 41%, which fits the trend of alternating monthly low and high spikes experienced since April 2025. The remaining percentiles were less dramatic with the 75th percentile decreasing slightly from 11% to 10% and the 25th percentile holding steady at -41%.
Shane Larkin brings over 15 years of private market experience spanning secondaries and venture capital. Prior to Forge, he co-founded Liquid Stock where he led sourcing, diligence and fund operations. Earlier he served as a...
Shane Larkin brings over 15 years of private market experience spanning secondaries and venture capital. Prior to Forge, he co-founded Liquid Stock where he led sourcing, diligence and fund operations. Earlier he served as a Vice President in private equity at Stifel Financial. Shane began his investment career at Thomas Weisel Partners in equity research. He holds an MBA from Cornell University, as well as an engineering degree.
