Private Market Update July 2026
As pipeline fills, IPO performance remains uneven
VC-backed IPO performance since Q1 2025 has been uneven, but the results point to a more nuanced market rather than a simple “open” or “closed” IPO window. Across the VC-backed IPO universe (excluding life sciences), several newly public companies have delivered positive returns from their IPO price through June 30, 2026, while many others remain below issue price, underscoring the continued importance of company quality, sector exposure, valuation discipline and post-IPO earnings. The strongest performers include CoreWeave, Hinge Health, Circle, Omada Health, Figure, Cerebras and SpaceX, each of which traded above IPO price as of Q2 2026.
At the same time, the broader IPO cohort remains selective. Several high-profile companies that generated strong first-day demand later traded below their IPO prices. Figma, for example, priced at $33 and closed its first day at $115.50,1 a 250% first-day return, but traded at $18.09 as of Q2 2026, representing a 45.2% decline from its IPO price. Of the 20 companies tracked by Forge that went public since Q1 2025, seven had positive performance through Q2 2026. This pattern highlights a key point for late-stage private market investors: strong IPO demand does not necessarily translate into durable public market performance.
| Company | Ticker | IPO Date | IPO Price | 06/30/2026 | Return Since IPO |
| CoreWeave | CRWV | 03/28/2025 | $40.00 | $99.54 | 148.9% |
| eToro | ETOR | 05/14/2025 | $52.00 | $39.47 | -24.1% |
| Hinge Health | HNGE | 05/22/2025 | $32.00 | $83.00 | 159.4% |
| MNTN | MNTN | 05/22/2025 | $16.00 | $9.20 | -42.5% |
| Circle | CRCL | 06/05/2025 | $31.00 | $62.63 | 102.0% |
| Omada Health | OMDA | 06/06/2025 | $19.00 | $21.95 | 15.5% |
| Chime | CHYM | 06/12/2025 | $27.00 | $20.48 | -24.1% |
| Figma | FIG | 07/31/2025 | $33.00 | $18.09 | -45.2% |
| Klarna | KLAR | 09/10/2025 | $40.00 | $20.24 | -49.4% |
| Figure | FIGR | 09/11/2025 | $25.00 | $30.71 | 22.8% |
| Gemini | GEMI | 09/12/2025 | $28.00 | $4.26 | -84.8% |
| Via | VIA | 09/12/2025 | $46.00 | $18.14 | -60.6% |
| StubHub | STUB | 09/17/2025 | $23.50 | $12.87 | -45.2% |
| Netskope | NTSK | 09/18/2025 | $19.00 | $10.94 | -42.4% |
| Navan | NAVN | 10/30/2025 | $25.00 | $22.87 | -8.5% |
| Wealthfront | WLTH | 12/12/2025 | $14.00 | $8.94 | -36.1% |
| BitGo | BTGO | 01/22/2026 | $18.00 | $5.18 | -71.2% |
| EquipmentShare | EQPT | 01/23/2026 | $24.50 | $19.66 | -19.8% |
| Cerebras | CBRS | 05/14/2026 | $185.00 | $221.00 | 19.5% |
| SpaceX | SPCX | 06/12/2026 | $135.00 | $170.86 | 26.6% |
Forge Data as of 06/30/2026
SpaceX provides a useful example of why investors may still want to consider exposure to late-stage private companies before an IPO. The chart below shows SpaceX’s Forge PriceTM rising materially through the private market period, with notable acceleration before the company’s public listing. After the IPO, the public share price traded above the IPO price but also showed meaningful volatility. SpaceX priced at $135, closed its first day at $160.95, and traded at $170.86 on June 30, 2026, representing a 19.2% first day return and a 26.6% return since IPO. Since the end of Q2, SpaceX’s shares have begun to return to earth, closing at $136.08 on July 14, just above its IPO price of $135. The company is reportedly set to report Q2 earnings in early August, the results of which could influence the future direction of the share price.2
That dynamic reinforces one of the central arguments for private market exposure: in many cases, substantial value creation occurs before public investors can access the company. For investors able to evaluate and access late-stage private companies, the private market can provide exposure to businesses that have already achieved scale but have not yet transferred their full growth story to the public market. This is particularly relevant in sectors where companies can remain private longer, raise large amounts of capital privately and enter the public market at a more mature stage. The SpaceX example illustrates that the IPO can validate private market value creation, but the opportunity for investors may begin well before the first day of public trading.
For portfolio construction, the post-IPO dispersion strengthens the case for diversification within private market exposure. Picking a single pre-IPO company can produce a wide range of outcomes, even among recognizable brands. A diversified approach across companies, themes and vintages may help reduce company specific risk while preserving access to the potential growth opportunities that are increasingly forming outside the public market. The positive longer-term performance of companies such as CoreWeave, Hinge Health, Circle and Figure demonstrate that the IPO market can still reward high-quality companies, but the negative performance of other newly public companies shows why entry valuation and portfolio construction remain critical.
IPO watchlist remains well stocked
The IPO pipeline also appears increasingly active, with a mix of companies at various stages of the IPO process. The composition of the pipeline is notable. It includes companies across enterprise software, consumer, digital assets and frontier AI. Anthropic and OpenAI stand out by valuation, with both approaching $1 trillion and only exceeded by SpaceX’s $1.25 trillion valuation when it was private.3
For private market investors, this environment creates a balanced but constructive outlook. Positive post-IPO performance from select companies demonstrates that the public market remains willing to reward high-quality growth companies, yet the wide dispersion in outcomes reinforces the value of accessing companies before IPO through disciplined, diversified private market allocations. As the pipeline develops, late-stage private companies may continue to offer investors exposure to important areas of innovation before those companies become fully represented in public indices. In that sense, the IPO market is not replacing the private market opportunity, it is helping validate it.
| Company | Last Filing Update | IPO Status | Forge Price or Recent Valuation ($B) |
| Motive | Dec 2025 | S-1 publicly filed | $2.2 |
| Discord | Jan 2026 | Confidentially filed | $8.5 |
| Strava | Feb 2026 | Confidentially filed | $2.2 |
| Kraken | Apr 2026 | Confidentially filed | $11.9 |
| Oura | May 2026 | Confidentially filed | $11.0 |
| Blockchain | May 2026 | Confidentially filed | $6.9 |
| FalconX | May 2026 | Confidentially filed | $8.0 |
| Anthropic | Jun 2026 | Confidentially filed | $965 |
| OpenAI | Jun 2026 | Confidentially filed | $894 |
Forge Data as of 07/14/2026
Private market strength persists through public market volatility
Private market benchmarks advanced in June despite weakness in public equities during a late-month technology selloff. The equal-weighted Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) rose 5.9%, while the cap-weighted Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) gained 6.5%. By comparison, SPY declined 1.0% and QQQ fell 0.1%. Public market weakness was concentrated near month-end, when technology stocks sold off during the final full week of June, though the Nasdaq still finished the quarter up 27.7%.
SandboxAQ (+171.1%) was the largest contributor to FPMI, adding 3.1% to the benchmark after receiving a $500 million federal contract to develop advanced materials for semiconductor manufacturing.4 SambaNova Systems (+83.7%) added 2.1% to FPMI as the company raised capital at an $11 billion valuation,5 while Ramp (+35.2%) contributed 0.7% to FPMI and 0.9% to FAPMI with the news of its $750 million round at a $44 billion valuation.6
SpaceX was the largest contributor to FAPMI, adding 5.1% to the benchmark following its public listing on June 12, 2026.7 Crusoe Energy Systems (+55.3%) also supported FAPMI, adding 0.8%, while Databricks (+7.6%) contributed 0.5%.
Several notable decliners partially offset gains during the month. Harness (-29.3%) reduced FPMI performance by 0.4%, while Epic Games (-18.7%) detracted 0.3%. Cerebras was the largest drag on FAPMI, reducing performance by 1.0% following a sharp reversal after its IPO.8
June's results underscore the continued strength of the private market, particularly among companies benefiting from secular themes such as artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure and enterprise software. While public market volatility increased toward month-end, private market performance remained supported by company-specific catalysts, funding activity and liquidity events. The divergence between private and public market returns during the month highlights the increasingly distinct drivers influencing late-stage private company valuations.
| Index | L1M | L3M | L12M |
| FPMI | 5.9% | 18.5% | 96.8% |
| FAPMI | 6.5% | 21.3% | 59.9% |
| SPY | -1.0% | 15.1% | 22.2% |
| QQQ | -0.1% | 27.7% | 34.1% |
Forge Data through 06/30/2026
Buy-side indications of interest percentage ends six-month streak of increases
Buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) accounted for 57% of total new and updated IOIs on the Forge marketplace in June. While below the elevated levels observed throughout much of 2025 and early 2026, buy-side activity continued to represent the majority of marketplace interest and remained well above the lows experienced during the 2022 market downturn. More broadly, the data suggests investor demand has remained resilient despite heightened public market volatility, with buy-side participation consistently accounting for more than half of marketplace activity since early 2024. This sustained buyer presence points to continued engagement with private market opportunities even as market conditions evolve.
Median trade premium reaches par for the first time since February 2022
The median trade premium reached 0% in June, marking the first time since February 2022 average trade premiums matched the last primary round price and suggesting that private market trade premiums have recovered since the downturn that dragged valuations broadly starting in 2022. The improvement was broad-based across the distribution. The 25th percentile improved from -41% to -32%, while the 10th percentile strengthened from -54% to -50%, indicating moderately narrower discounts within the lowest percentile. At the upper end, the 75th percentile increased from 10% to 23% and the 90th percentile rose from 41% to 79%, reflecting continued investor willingness to pay meaningful premiums for select companies. Taken together, the June data suggests improving pricing conditions across the secondary market, with the median transaction no longer trading at a discount to the last primary funding round.
Shane Larkin brings over 15 years of private market experience spanning secondaries and venture capital. Prior to Forge, he co-founded Liquid Stock where he led sourcing, diligence and fund operations. Earlier he served as a...
Shane Larkin brings over 15 years of private market experience spanning secondaries and venture capital. Prior to Forge, he co-founded Liquid Stock where he led sourcing, diligence and fund operations. Earlier he served as a Vice President in private equity at Stifel Financial. Shane began his investment career at Thomas Weisel Partners in equity research. He holds an MBA from Cornell University, as well as an engineering degree.
