Private Market Update September 2026

Over the past month, late-stage technology headlines have focused less on eye-catching funding rounds and more on sharp valuation declines. Newly public Bending Spoons¹ has emerged as a buyer of once highflying technology businesses at deeply discounted valuations from their last funding rounds.

Bending Spoons began the month by announcing its acquisition of relational database company Airtable on August 4.² Once a standout of the ZIRP era, Airtable last raised capital in December 2021 at an $11 billion valuation but was acquired for $1.28 billion in cash. On September 10, Bending Spoons similarly announced its $1.36 billion cash acquisition of online collaboration software company Miro.³ Miro’s previous funding round, completed in January 2022, valued the company at $17.5 billion.⁴ That round arguably came near the end of the prior technology startup boom: Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022,⁵ and the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates the following month,⁶ effectively ending the U.S. era of “free money.” These acquisitions equate to an 88% discount to the last funding round for Airtable and 92% for Miro, both of which are well below the average 73% discount for the top 10 companies with the highest previous funding round valuations from 2021 to Q1 2022 that have not raised capital since.⁷

In some respects, this could mark the beginning of the end of the Great Reset—the period that began in 2022 when private company valuations fell back to earth.⁸ Companies that continued raising capital during that period did so to either stabilize or reduce their valuations. Those that did not may remain anchored to valuations that no longer reflect market conditions. Although the Great Reset’s endpoint is uncertain, resetting valuations and creating exit paths for companies unlikely to go public or raise more venture funding can strengthen the late-stage private market. Bending Spoons may be establishing a model for strategic acquirers and private equity firms to follow. With well-capitalized technology companies and private equity funds holding undeployed capital,⁹ such deals could provide a new exit route for companies with upside-down valuations. Leaving capital tied up for years in stagnant companies—or businesses unlikely to regain their former heights—is inefficient and distorts the venture funding cycle. Exits at more realistic valuations may be difficult for investors and executives to swallow, but they ultimately allow them to move on and redirect acquisition proceeds toward more productive opportunities.

The backlog of companies in similar situations to Airtable or Miro is long, as shown by Forge data.¹⁰ There are 497 private companies that last raised capital in 2021 or Q1 2022. Of these companies, 112 have traded on the Forge marketplace. These companies have an average Forge Price discount to the most recent funding round of -49% and a median of -61%. As shown in the chart below, narrowing the list to the 10 companies with the highest last-round valuations widens the average discount to -73% and pushes the median to -79%.

Analyzing the data by the year companies last raised capital shows a similar story. Visualized in the chart below, companies that have not raised since 2021 or 2022 have the highest discount to last round valuation. This further emphasizes the point that there is still a backlog of companies from this era potentially stuck in limbo and unable to go public or raise additional capital. Secondary market transactions have established market-clearing valuations for some of these late-stage companies, while management teams and investors continue to assess how best to address the implications of those valuations through financing, operational or strategic actions. While it could take some time to work through the majority of companies in this situation, it might provide opportunities for risk tolerant investors like Bending Spoons to find acquisitions in the rubble of the ZIRP era, which also ironically helps today’s VC funding mechanism.

August performance favors the public market as the private market declines slightly

Public market performance rebounded in August, which overshadowed muted private market performance for the month. The Forge Private Market Index (FPMI), which reflects private company constituents, declined 0.6%, while the Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI), whose universe includes public post-IPO exposure, rose 5.1%. Public market benchmarks also advanced, with SPY up 2.7% and QQQ up 4.2%. U.S. indexes finished August higher as software and technology shares recovered from July pressure.¹¹ Within FAPMI, SpaceX (+32.6%) helped turn July's post-IPO drag into August support.

FPMI's modest decline showed that August was not a broad rally across private companies, while FAPMI benefited from a rebound in public post-IPO names and several larger constituents. The month reinforced that performance in the private market is being set company by company, with public-market readiness, liquidity and company-specific demand continuing to matter as much as broad risk appetite. August aside, FPMI holds a sizable performance advantage over FAPMI the past 12 months (86.6% vs. 63.4%) as newly public company shares have often struggled after the lockup periods have expired.¹²

Cap-weighting and public company exposure boosted FAPMI August performance

FAPMI's August gain was helped by SpaceX's rebound after a difficult July, while Kalshi (+59.1%), Netskope (+21.6%) and Databricks (+9.4%) also moved higher. Databricks’ move coincided with reports that it raised $5 billion at a $190 billion valuation after investor demand exceeded its initial fundraising target.¹³ Cerebras (-7.3%) remained a counterweight, underscoring that public price exposure continued to cut both ways inside the cap-weighted benchmark. 

July's post-IPO concerns faded, but they did not disappear. Reports continued to frame SpaceX's trading around post-IPO share supply, lockup dynamics and investor appetite following its July selloff.¹⁴ The episode again highlighted how quickly public markets resolve uncertainty. 

FPMI private company moves kept performance muted

For FPMI, the largest moves were highly concentrated. Stoke Space (+198.5%) was a standout. The company had earlier extended its Series D financing to $860 million as it continued developing its fully reusable Nova launch vehicle.¹⁵ Ayar Labs (+40.0%) was another constituent providing upside. Ayar Labs has positioned co-packaged optics as a way to address bandwidth, latency and power constraints in rack-scale AI infrastructure and joined NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion ecosystem in June.¹⁶ 

Other positive private company moves included Kraken (+33.9%), Discord (+17.5%), Abridge (+15.9%), Skild AI (+9.9%), Saronic (+9.1%), Epirus (+8.2%) and Fanatics (+6.1%). The gains extended beyond a handful of names, but they were not enough to lift FPMI overall because a separate group of private companies moved lower or remained flat.

The downside included ConsenSys (-23.2%), Rippling (-17.8%), Glean (-14.3%), Liquid Death (-13.4%), Lyten (-13.1%), Cribl (-12.6%) and Anduril (-12.2%). SambaNova Systems (-7.3%) also pulled back after its July surge. These losses offset gains from several outsized winners and FPMI finished the month slightly negative. 

Forge Data as of 08/31/2026

Buy-side IOI share falls below 50% for the second straight month amid rising seller activity

Buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) accounted for 45% of total new and updated IOIs on the Forge marketplace in August, down from 48% in July and 57% in June. The decline marks the second consecutive month in which buy-side activity represented less than half of marketplace interest and pushed buyer participation to its lowest level since late 2023. The recent pullback follows a sustained period of strong buyer engagement throughout 2024, 2025, and the first half of 2026, when buy-side IOIs consistently represented a majority of marketplace activity. While buyers continue to account for a significant share of marketplace demand, the trend suggests sellers have become increasingly active in recent months, driving a more balanced marketplace dynamic. Despite the moderation, buy-side participation remains well above the levels observed during the 2022 market downturn, when buyer interest routinely accounted for less than 40% of activity. The increase in sell-side engagement may reflect growing shareholder willingness to pursue liquidity opportunities amid improving private market conditions and elevated secondary market activity

Secondary market pricing rebounds in August, led by gains in premium transactions

The median secondary market trade on Forge transacted at a 3% discount to the last primary funding round in August, an improvement from the 7% discount recorded in July. While still modestly below par, the median remained near its strongest level since early 2022 and well above the steep discounts that characterized much of 2022 and 2023, when median trades often cleared at discounts approaching 50%. Pricing improved across much of the distribution. The 25th percentile strengthened from -34% to -30%, while the 75th percentile increased from 7% to 11%, indicating modestly firmer pricing for both below-market and above-market transactions. At the upper end of the distribution, the 90th percentile rose from 27% to 58% due to a shift in the mix of companies traded. The 10^th percentile declined from -57% to -87%, indicating that a limited number of transactions continued to clear at significant discounts. Several of the companies in the 10^th percentile have not raised since 2021, leading to stale primary round valuations. Although valuations have not fully returned to the premium-rich environment that prevailed before the 2022 downturn, the recovery in median transaction pricing and the reacceleration of premiums among the strongest trades suggest investors remain increasingly comfortable transacting at valuations closer to, and in some cases well above, the last primary funding round.