July highlights: Gains in the private market met post-IPO pressure
Performance in the private market split sharply in July. The Forge Private Market Index (FPMI), which reflects private-company constituents, rose 9.33%, while the Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI), whose universe included public post-IPO exposure, declined -4.23% as SpaceX weighed on the cap-weighted benchmark. Public-market comparables were also mixed: SPY was nearly flat at +0.03%, while QQQ declined -6.57%. The public-market backdrop was marked by pressure in technology and chip-linked equities, with the Nasdaq-100 trailing equal-weighted equities during a July chip-stock unwind.1
That divergence defined the month. FPMI was lifted by outsized moves in private companies, while FAPMI was pulled lower by public-listing pressure from SpaceX (-36.57%), whose post-IPO trading overwhelmed otherwise positive contributions inside the cap-weighted benchmark.
The Forge Consumer thematic basket rose 13.82% and the Forge Aerospace & Defense (A&D) thematic basket gained 11.97%, while the Forge Artificial Intelligence (AI) thematic basket advanced 3.05%. By contrast, the Forge Chips thematic basket declined -4.74% and the Forge Fintech thematic basket fell -2.51%, underscoring how quickly leadership shifted from June's narrower AI-infrastructure and fintech advance.
Equal-weighted winners carried the month
SambaNova Systems (+142.86%) was the largest visible contributor to FPMI, adding 6.52% to the equal-weighted benchmark. The move coincided with SambaNova's July 8 announcement that it had completed the first close of a $1.0 billion Series F financing at an $11.0 billion post-money valuation.2 Neuralink (+98.36%) added 1.80% to FPMI, while Zipline International (+59.48%) contributed 1.25%.
The broader pattern was less a uniform AI trade than a concentrated advance in a small set of private companies. Ayar Labs (+17.30%), Lyten (+15.03%), Anduril (+19.99%), Harness (+35.71%) and Rippling (+17.66%) also contributed positively to FPMI.
The downside was meaningful but more fragmented in the equal-weighted index. Lightmatter (-16.76%) subtracted -0.55% from FPMI, while Airtable (-24.50%), Postman (-24.89%), Kraken (-19.82%) and Tanium (-12.78%) also weighed on the benchmark.
Cap-weighted pressure centered on SpaceX
FAPMI's decline was driven primarily by SpaceX, which subtracted -7.08% from the cap-weighted benchmark. The pressure followed a difficult July for SPCX shares, with reports noting that the stock lost roughly one-third of its value during the month and faced additional scrutiny ahead of its first post-IPO earnings report and insider-share unlocks.3
That single-company effect outweighed several positive cap-weighted contributors. Anduril added 1.21% to FAPMI, Neuralink added 1.09%, Fanatics (+27.38%) contributed 0.35%, Zipline International added 0.29%, Rippling added 0.21%, Vercel (+27.18%) added 0.16% and Deel (+8.99%) added 0.11%.
Other detractors reinforced the point that July was a month of issuer-level price discovery. Cerebras (-10.09%) subtracted -0.37% from FAPMI, while Kraken, Plaid (-32.76%), Lightmatter, Airtable, Postman and Polymarket (-5.40%) also detracted.
Consumer and A&D led, while Chips and Fintech lagged
The Consumer basket was the strongest theme in July, rising 13.82%. Zipline International was the largest contributor, adding 8.02% to the basket, followed by Fanatics at 5.37% and WHOOP (+12.14%) at 1.25%. Eight Sleep (-28.27%) was the primary offset, detracting -0.86%.
A&D gained 11.97% and was almost entirely driven by Anduril, which added 11.69% to the basket. Shield AI (+1.34%) provided a modest additional lift, while Epirus (+0.00%), Saronic (+0.00%) and Stoke Space (+0.00%) were flat in the monthly attribution data.
The AI basket rose 3.05%, led by Anduril's 2.50% contribution and support from Zipline International and Skild AI (+6.13%). Lightmatter was the main AI offset, detracting -0.13%. The Chips basket declined -4.74% as Lightmatter subtracted -7.22%, more than offsetting Ayar Labs' 3.22% positive contribution. PsiQuantum (-1.92%) also detracted -0.74%.
Fintech declined -2.51%, with weakness concentrated in Kraken, Polymarket and Ripple (-3.08%), which detracted -1.80%, -0.51% and -0.41%, respectively. Ramp (+0.60%) and Mercury (+2.16%) were modest positive contributors, but not enough to offset the larger digital-asset and fintech platform decliners.
The IPO lens shifted from anticipation to trading discipline
July did not remove IPOs from the narrative in the private market; it changed the terms of the discussion. SpaceX's July return of -36.57% left SPCX -19.73% below its IPO price and -32.67% below its first-day close, adding a public-market counterpart to its -7.08% drag on FAPMI. Reports also pointed to the role of limited float, valuation scrutiny and upcoming insider-share unlocks in shaping the stock's post-debut trading.4 For late-stage companies, public-market readiness is no longer just about getting to the listing date; it is also about sustaining price discovery once daily liquidity arrives.
Cerebras offered a different, but related, example of post-IPO recalibration. CBRS remained +7.41% above its $185 IPO price at July 31, yet it was -36.12% below its $311.07 first-day close, while the July workbook showed a -10.09% monthly return. The contrast between SpaceX and Cerebras does not suggest that IPO demand disappeared; it suggests that recently public, venture-backed companies are being judged more quickly on float, valuation and the durability of early trading support.5 That framing helps explain the split inside the July data: FPMI benefited from large moves in select private companies, including SambaNova Systems and Neuralink, while FAPMI was pulled lower by the public-market discipline now surrounding SpaceX.
July's rally was powerful, but uneven
Taken together, July delivered a strong move in private-company constituents and a more difficult month for public post-IPO exposure. FPMI rose 9.33% as several private companies posted outsized gains, yet FAPMI declined -4.23% as SpaceX weighed heavily on the cap-weighted benchmark. Consumer and A&D led, Chips and Fintech lagged, and the month reinforced that performance in the private market is increasingly being set name by name rather than by a single risk-on or risk-off narrative.
Still, the IPO pipeline remained a defining backdrop for trading in the private market. Anthropic and OpenAI have each submitted confidential S-1s,6 though OpenAI has said it has not decided on timing and may remain private for a while.7 Forge Price valuations placed Anthropic at approximately $965.0 billion and OpenAI at approximately $894.3 billion as of August 4, 2026, representing nearly $1.86 trillion in combined implied value. That scale continues to loom large over the private market, reinforcing investor demand for late-stage, venture-backed companies, particularly those highly sought-after names that have seen substantial valuation step-ups over the past 18 months.
