Private Market Update May 2026
Private market sector performance accelerates – and spoiler, it’s not just AI
As AI continues to significantly contribute to overall private market performance, additional sectors are also demonstrating strong returns.
Enter: chips, aerospace & defense, and fintech – all segments that continue to show improved returns as their underlying constituents grow in value.
Together, these sectors highlight an important evolution in the current cycle: while artificial intelligence remains the central narrative, performance is increasingly being driven by the infrastructure, systems and financial platforms that enable its expansion. This broadening of industry sectors suggests that private market returns are no longer concentrated in a single theme, but are instead diffusing across adjacent areas that benefit from the same underlying technological and capital allocation trends.
In practice, large valuation moves in the private market are rarely uniform and are more often tied to company-specific catalysts or structural shifts within particular sectors. Without a consistent framework to segment the market, investors risk overlooking where capital is actually being deployed and where performance is being generated.
With the potential exit of SpaceX,1 Anthropic2 and OpenAI3 from the private market later this year, private market data can help identify which segments may offer opportunity and which companies are driving performance beyond the big three.
To understand where performance is being generated and where innovation leadership resides, it is sometimes helpful to take a narrower view. Baskets provide a useful lens to address this challenge. By grouping companies based on shared exposure to key technological or end-market trends, basket data offers a more granular view of how performance is distributed across the private market. While baskets and sectors are similar, baskets represent the performance of sectors, but in a way that is more fitting for innovation themes. Traditional sector screening would place artificial intelligence in a broader information technology category or defense within industrials, which may obscure their contribution to the private market. Baskets also allow companies to represent multiple themes (example, Anduril in the aerospace & defense and artificial intelligence baskets) since companies can contribute to more than one area of innovation. Full details on Forge thematic baskets are available here.
Monthly and year-to-date basket performance
The strongest basket return came from chips, which rose 6.0% in April. Strong price performance by Cerebras (+10.9%) was the primary driver of this outperformance, more than offsetting weakness from PsiQuantum (-2.8%). The need for specialized chips to enable AI and potentially diversify away from NVIDIA is a central theme in the private market.4
The aerospace & defense basket also posted a strong month, gaining 3.5%. Saronic (+35.2%) was the largest contributor, with additional support from SpaceX (+2.0%) and Anduril (+1.1%). The basket’s performance reflected continued investor focus on defense technology, autonomy and frontier infrastructure amid the backdrop of the Middle East conflict.5
Although not in the top two baskets this month, artificial intelligence rose 0.9%. Gains from Cerebras, Saronic, Anthropic (+1.1%) and Anduril helped offset weakness in OpenAI (-1.8%) and Zipline International (-5.0%).
Other baskets were positive but relatively muted. Fintech gained 0.7%, supported by Ramp (+2.1%) despite weakness in Ripple (-3.3%). While consumer rose 0.1%, as strength from Eight Sleep (+64.6%) was largely offset by weakness in Zipline International.
Through April 2026, chips has led all baskets this year with an 81.2% return through April. Aerospace & defense was the next best performing basket year-to-date with a 34.5% return. While fintech at 16.8%, consumer at 15.4% and artificial intelligence at 14.8% round out the remaining baskets. This compares to broad-based private market benchmarks the Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) with returns of 16.2% and the Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) at 13.6% as the public market, represented by QQQ and SPY, were 8.8% and 5.7%, respectively.
Private market indexes moved higher in April, though the pace of appreciation lagged meaningfully behind public equities. Following a more uneven March backdrop (FPMI -0.4% and FAPMI +1.0%), April delivered broadly positive, albeit measured, performance across late-stage private assets. Gains were narrower in scope and more heavily concentrated in a small number of companies and themes.
FPMI rose 0.1%, while FAPMI gained 1.2%, reflecting continued divergence between equal-weighted and cap-weighted performance. Over the same period, public markets rallied sharply, with SPY up 10.5% and QQQ rising 15.7%.
One of the most notable contributors to index performance was Kalshi (+102.3%), which added 1.0% to FAPMI. The move followed a reported March financing round led by Coatue Management, where the company raised over $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, approximately doubling its prior valuation within a short time frame.6 This development underscores continued investor interest in regulated prediction market infrastructure, even as the category remains subject to evolving regulatory considerations.
Cerebras (+10.9%) was another key driver, contributing 0.5% to FPMI and 0.2% to FAPMI. The gain coincided with the company’s progression toward the public markets, including the filing of its S-1 on April 17.7 The move highlights the ongoing importance of IPO pipeline activity as a catalyst for late-stage repricing.
Despite these notable gains, several sharp decliners limited overall index performance. Rippling (-27.1%) and Automation Anywhere (-21.2%) each detracted -0.5% from FPMI, with Rippling also reducing FAPMI by -0.5%.
Overall, the private market did not experience the same upside volatility as the public market in April but still maintained positive momentum for the year.
| Index | L1M | L3M | L12M |
| FPMI | 0.1% | 11.1% | 68.0% |
| FAPMI | 1.2% | 11.5% | 65.7% |
| SPY | 10.5% | 4.1% | 31.1% |
| QQQ | 15.7% | 7.5% | 41.1% |
Forge Data as of 04/30/2026
Buy-side indications of interest percentage continued to move higher in April
Buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) as a percentage of total interest on the Forge marketplace increased to 69% in April from 66% in March. This marks the fifth month in a row that buy-side interest has increased and the highest level since December 2024. Overall, the buy-side IOI percentage continued to move in an upward trend since reaching a low point in October 2022, despite some occasional significant decreases. The buy-side interest percentage hit a low of 26% in October 2022 and a high of 74% in December 2024.
Trade premiums on balance fell, except for the top decile
Trade premiums mostly declined in April, apart from the upper end, which strengthened. The 90th percentile rose to 92% from 64% in March. Lower percentiles fell modestly: the 10th percentile moved down to -58% from -47%, the 25th percentile declined to -41% from -33% and the 75th percentile decreased to 11% from 14%. While the median (50th percentile) saw the largest decline to -19% from -3%.
Shane Larkin brings over 15 years of private market experience spanning secondaries and venture capital. Prior to Forge, he co-founded Liquid Stock where he led sourcing, diligence and fund operations. Earlier he served as a...
Shane Larkin brings over 15 years of private market experience spanning secondaries and venture capital. Prior to Forge, he co-founded Liquid Stock where he led sourcing, diligence and fund operations. Earlier he served as a Vice President in private equity at Stifel Financial. Shane began his investment career at Thomas Weisel Partners in equity research. He holds an MBA from Cornell University, as well as an engineering degree.
