Private Market Update February 2026
The private market’s race to $1 trillion in market capitalization ushers in new breed: The ‘Teracorn’
The private market reached a new milestone this month, and it didn’t take a funding round to get there. To paraphrase Justin Timberlake's take on Sean Parker from the Social Network, “A billion dollars isn’t cool. You know what’s cool? A trillion dollars.”1
In a proposed merger with xAI, another Elon Musk–affiliated company, SpaceX would be valued at approximately $1 trillion, with xAI valued at $250 billion.2 Were the combined entity publicly listed, its implied merger valuation of $1.25 trillion would rank it eighth, falling just outside of the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” trailing Tesla—also founded by Elon Musk—which is currently valued at approximately $1.5 trillion.
For context, the first U.S. public company to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization was Apple on August 2, 2018.3 At that point, Apple had been operating for 42 years, including 37 years as a public company.4 By contrast, in today’s private market, SpaceX has reached a comparable $1 trillion valuation after just 23 years of operation — entirely as a private company.5 This dynamic underscores the trend of companies remaining private for longer periods, with a greater share of value creation potentially accruing to private investors, as explored in Forge's report Late-stage private companies: The new growth investing.
Close on SpaceX’s heels is OpenAI. The artificial intelligence (AI) foundational model company is reportedly raising capital at a $750 billion valuation.6 OpenAI has also discussed the possibility of becoming a public company at a $1 trillion valuation.7 Should OpenAI achieve this milestone in 2026, it would do so at just 11 years old.8
Time to $1 Trillion - Public vs. Private Benchmarks
| Company | Market Type | $1T Milestone | Years to $1T |
| NVIDIA | Public | 2023 | ~30 years |
| Apple | Public | 2018 | ~42 years |
| Alphabet (Google) | Public | 2020 | ~22 years |
| Microsoft | Public | 2019 | ~44 years |
| Amazon | Public | 2018 | ~24 years |
| Meta Platforms | Public | 2021 | ~17 years |
| Tesla | Public | 2021 | ~18 years |
| SpaceX (+ xAI) | Private | 2025 (implied) | ~23 years |
| OpenAI (projected) | Private | 2026 (potential) | ~11 years |
Forge Data through 1/31/2026
Private markets have evolved rapidly in recent years and bear little resemblance to their state just three years ago. In December 2022, the combined valuation of the top 100 private companies stood at approximately $955 billion; as of February 3rd, the most valuable single private company exceeds that figure on its own. The aggregate valuation of the top 100 private companies now exceeds $3.5 trillion, representing a 268% increase over the same period.9 Value creation has been even more concentrated at the upper end of the market. The top 10 private companies were valued at $399 billion in December 2022; as of February 3rd, those same companies represent approximately $2.7 trillion in aggregate value — a 569% increase in just three years.10 By comparison, the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) appreciated 132% over the same timeframe,11 highlighting the magnitude and concentration of growth among the largest private companies.
These developments provide further evidence that value creation increasingly occurs in the private market. Leading private companies are remaining private for longer and delaying IPOs well beyond the point at which they have achieved baseline scale, revenueand operating maturity. As a result, while there is information asymmetry between public and private companies, today’s largest private companies more closely resemble their public market counterparts in terms of greater financial scale, operational depth, and durability. Case in point, performance of the Private Magnificent 7, while still trailing its public market counterpart in terms of overall valuation, continues to outperform the public Magnificent 7. In the past 12 months, the Private Magnificent 7, which includes SpaceX and xAI as two distinct companies for now, as well as OpenAI, Databricks, Anduril, Anthropic and Stripe,12 is up 137%, while the public Magnificent 7 gained 22% in the same time period.
With the emergence of the first $1 trillion private company, the question arises: how should this new category be defined? The term “unicorn,” coined by Aileen Lee of Cowboy Ventures, has long described private companies valued at $1 billion or more.13 “Decacorn” extends that framework to companies valued at $10 billion or more. However, the leap from $10 billion to $1 trillion represents an order-of-magnitude shift that existing terminology fails to capture. While "megacorn" is sometimes used to describe the largest private companies, the term lacks defined parameters and has been broadly applied against a range of valuations in prior market cycles.
Several alternatives to denote a trillion-dollar-plus private company have been proposed. “Kilocorn,” a reference to 1,000 units, has gained some traction but lacks intuitive resonance. “Ultracorn” conveys scale and dominance but remains overly generic and imprecise. “Teracorn” offers a more fitting and analytically grounded designation. The prefix “tera” denotes 10¹²—one trillion—providing a direct mathematical analogue to a $1 trillion valuation. The term is not yet widely adopted, but it is both precise and accessible for investors. As private markets continue to evolve and produce companies of unprecedented scale, “teracorn” reflects this new paradigm—and while only one private issuer currently meets this definition, it may well become a defining feature of the next era of private-market value creation.
Forge Price Additions
In January, two companies were added to Forge Price coverage: Crusoe and Kalshi. New companies are considered for inclusion in Forge Price when multiple trades are completed on the Forge marketplace, and an ongoing market develops.
Crusoe builds and operates data centers that power AI. The company was founded in 2018 and whose profile rose rapidly as AI companies began needing massive infrastructure buildouts to support rising compute needs. The company raised a $1.38 billion Series E round in October 2025 at a $10 billion valuation14 and includes Valor Equity Partners, Mubadala Capital, NVIDIA and Founders Fund as investors.
Kalshi is one of the largest prediction market platforms operating in the U.S. In December 2025 the company raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation.15 Key investors include Paradigm, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, CapitalG and Y Combinator. Kalshi is significant as it was the first CFTC-regulated (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) exchange for event contracts in the U.S.16
Private market indices led public market benchmarks in January
The private market entered 2026 with renewed momentum, as January delivered broad-based strength across sectors. Both the Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) and Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) posted gains to start the year, extending the divergence between private and public markets that emerged in 2025.
The equal-weighted FPMI advanced 4.4% in January, while the cap-weighted FAPMI rose 1.8%. In contrast, public market benchmarks delivered more modest returns, with SPY up 1.5% and QQQ gaining 1.2%.
FPMI was boosted by Cerebras (+53.9%), Lyten (+45.7%) and EquipmentShare’s IPO (+35.0%).17 FAPMI benefited from Stripe (+20.1%) but was held back by publicly traded Figma (-30.6%) as the index holds newly public names for one year from their IPO.
January’s performance points to a private market entering 2026 with continued momentum from 2025 and more than just AI as a theme. At the same time, capital formation activity continued to strengthen. Recent funding rounds for Anthropic,18 xAI,19 and Zipline,20 along with a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026,21 are positive developments for the current capital raising cycle.
| Index | L1M | L3M | L12M |
| FPMI | 4.4% | 15.2% | 87.3% |
| FAPMI | 1.8% | 8.4% | 56.8% |
| SPY | 1.5% | 1.7% | 16.3% |
| QQQ | 1.2% | -1.0% | 19.7% |
Forge Data through 1/31/2026
Buy-side indications of interest percentage continued to rebound since November decrease
Buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) as a percentage of total interest on the Forge marketplace increased to 65% from 59% in December. Overall, the buy-side IOI percentage continued to move in an upward trend since reaching a low point in October 2022 despite some occasional significant decreases. The buy-side interest percentage hit a low of 26% in October 2022 and a high of 74% in December 2024.
Trade premiums were mixed in January compared to December. The median increased modestly to -10% from -11%, while the 25th percentile increased to -47% from -53%. The remaining percentiles declined, with the steepest decline happening in the 90th percentile, which decreased to 38% from 91% in December. Holding flat at 7% was the 75th percentile and the 10th percentile decreased to -89% from -85%.
About the Author
Shane Larkin is a private market investment leader with extensive experience in private and public markets, combining a strong analytical foundation with a background in engineering and business. He has conducted in-depth due diligence across a range of sectors, leveraging his expertise in financial modeling, data analysis and market research. Shane holds an MBA from Cornell Johnson Graduate School of Management. Read more from Shane.
