Private Market Update March 2026
Record capital formation redefines the private market landscape
If January signaled renewed momentum in private markets, February confirmed a fundamental shift: capital formation at the very top of the market accelerated at a historic pace.
The three largest private companies determined by Forge Price™ valuation – SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic – collectively reshaped the upper bound of private market valuations in a single month.1 What appeared at first to be a sequence of headline-grabbing transactions2,3,4 is better understood as evidence of deepening capital concentration and the institutionalization of AI and frontier technology financing.
February opened with the announcement that SpaceX was merging with xAI, forming the highest-valued private company to date at a reported $1.25 trillion valuation5 – effectively creating the first “teracorn.” The transaction is significant, reflecting the convergence of aerospace infrastructure, satellite communications, and generative AI under a unified capital structure, backed by private investors at unprecedented scale.
Shortly thereafter, reports emerged that SpaceX may be reevaluating its long-standing resistance to public markets.6 While no formal filing has been made, even the prospect of an IPO introduces meaningful implications for liquidity dynamics across late-stage private companies.
Anthropic followed with what was, at the time, the second-largest private technology funding round7 ever completed: a $30 billion raise at a $380 billion valuation, reportedly led by GIC and Coatue.8 The participation of a sovereign wealth fund, like Singapore-based GIC, at this scale further underscores the degree to which AI investment has transitioned from venture-led growth financing to global institutional capital allocation.
OpenAI then raised the bar again, announcing a $110 billion financing, the largest private capital raise on record.9 For context, this single capital raising round exceeds the total annual capital raised by mid- and late-stage private companies since 2019,10 with only the peak funding environments of 2021 and 2025 surpassing comparable aggregate levels.
With $140 billion already raised year-to-date by OpenAI and Anthropic alone, 2026 is on pace to set a new high-water mark for mid- and late-stage private funding. More importantly, the distribution of capital suggests that private markets are increasingly defined by a small number of systemically significant companies operating at larger capital scale.
When analyzing the impact that the three largest companies – SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic – have on the private market, it is hard not to overstate it. Considering the top 50 private companies by valuation, the top three represent $2.63 trillion out of $3.85 trillion total valuation.11 This means the top three companies comprise 68% of the total valuation for the top 50 companies.12
For comparison, the largest three public companies by market cap, NVIDIA, Apple and Alphabet, total $11.96 trillion.13 The total market cap of the top 50 public companies is $41 trillion, which gives the top three 29% of the total.14 Compared to the public market, the private market has 2.3x more concentration in the top three largest companies when compared to the top 50 companies. This structural concentration underscores why the trajectory of the largest private companies has become central to the outlook for the private market.
February’s activity illustrates a private market operating at a new scale, where capital formation is increasingly concentrated among a small number of systemically significant companies. While this concentration reshapes the upper bound of private market valuations, it also reflects a market that has matured enough to support at least one trillion-dollar outcome without relying on public markets. As these companies approach an unprecedented scale, eventual IPOs could be viewed less as a disruption and more as a natural mechanism for recycling capital and reducing concentration, while allowing the private market to rebalance and continue funding the next generation of category-defining companies.
Private market momentum carries into February
Building off a strong January,15 the private market continued its rise in February. Both the Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) and Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) extended gains from January and outpaced the public market indices. The equal-weighted FPMI16 advanced 11.5% in February, while the cap-weighted FAPMI rose 9.2%. In contrast, public market benchmarks were negative during February, with SPY down 0.9 % and QQQ falling 2.3%. FPMI was boosted by the AI chip trinity of Groq (+115.0%), SambaNova (+110.2%) and Cerebras (+69.2%). FAPMI benefited from Stripe (+43.3%) and SpaceX (+33.2%) but was held back by Ripple (-15.1%).
IPO activity in February didn’t match the levels seen in January.17 The IPO market got off to a quick start with BitGo18 and EquipmentShare19 both going public in January during the same week. Weakness in the public market, however, potentially put a damper on IPO enthusiasm in February. No late-stage technology companies went public during February20 even with an S-1 on file from Motive21 and confidential filings from Discord22 and Kraken23. While it may not happen until this summer, further progress on SpaceX’s IPO24 could be a catalyst to bring excitement back to the public market.
| Index | L1M | L3M | L12M |
| FPMI | 11.5% | 21.9% | 73.5% |
| FAPMI | 9.2% | 18.2% | 65.7% |
| SPY | -0.9% | 0.7% | 16.8% |
| QQQ | -2.3% | -1.8% | 20.1% |
Forge Data through 02/28/2026
Buy-side indications of interest percentage increased slightly in February
Buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) as a percentage of total interest on the Forge marketplace increased to 66% from 65% in January. Overall, the buy-side IOI percentage continued to move in an upward trend since reaching a low point in October 2022, despite some occasional significant decreases. The buy-side interest percentage hit a low of 26% in October 2022 and a high of 74% in December 2024.
Trade premiums showed a mixed but modestly constructive pattern in February
Trade premiums were mixed in February relative to January. The upper end strengthened, with the 90th percentile rising to 47% from 38%, while the lower tail also improved: the 10th percentile moved up to 69% from 89%, and the 25th percentile to 36% from 47%. The median edged slightly lower to 11% from 10%. Meanwhile, the 75th percentile was unchanged at 7%, marking its third consecutive month at that level.
About the Author
Shane Larkin is a private market investment leader with extensive experience in private and public markets, combining a strong analytical foundation with a background in engineering and business. He has conducted in-depth due diligence across a range of sectors, leveraging his expertise in financial modeling, data analysis and market research. Shane holds an MBA from Cornell Johnson Graduate School of Management. Read more from Shane.
