Private Market Update January 2026
Public liquidity returns: Assessing the 2025 IPO market and the 2026 pipeline
IPOs are an important part of the life cycle of issuers in the private market, providing large-scale liquidity that allows investors to recycle capital, return proceeds to LPs and raise new funds. After several years of subdued activity, the IPO market in 2025 did just enough to signal a reopening. A total of 24 IPOs, up from the 17 to 18 annual listings seen in “normal” years,1 marked a modest but meaningful improvement and laid the groundwork for what could be a stronger environment in 2026.
That outcome was far from assured. The year began quietly, with limited issuance and cautious investor sentiment. Momentum finally arrived in late March when CoreWeave raised $1.5 billion in its public offering, becoming the largest technology IPO since 2021 and resetting expectations for what was possible.2 Just days later, however, the announcement of U.S. tariffs on Liberation Day (April 2) abruptly stalled IPO activity, sidelining new offerings for several weeks.3 By early May, conditions stabilized and issuance resumed. Hinge Health, Circle and Chime soon entered the public market, signaling renewed confidence by companies in the IPO environment.4 The pre-summer vacation IPO activity culminated in July as Figma ended its first day of trading with one of the strongest debuts in recent years5 — a fitting high point for the first part of the year.
Activity slowed during the late summer as markets digested earlier offerings and deal teams paused for seasonal breaks. By early fall, however, the pipeline of IPO activity appeared ready to re-engage. Companies such as Klarna, Figure and Netskope went public, setting the stage for what many expected to be a strong finish to 2025.6 That optimism proved short-lived. A 43-day U.S. government shutdown, the longest in history,7 brought the IPO market to a standstill as the SEC operated with minimal staffing and effectively ceased review activity.8 One notable exception was Navan, which managed to price its IPO during the shutdown by relying on an obscure regulatory loophole.9 No other companies followed suit. When the government reopened on November 12, momentum had largely dissipated and only one additional company, Wealthfront, went public before year-end.10
Despite the disruptions, the 2025 IPO class was notably diverse, spanning AI infrastructure, fintech, digital health and cybersecurity. Performance varied widely. First-day returns ranged from Figma’s extraordinary 250% surge to Navan’s 20% decline.11 By year-end, outcomes were similarly dispersed, from Circle’s 156% gain to Gemini's 65% drop.12 The uneven results reflected a market still recalibrating valuations and risk appetite, but they also underscored an important point: the reopening of the IPO market itself was broadly welcomed by both private and public investors.
While the 2025 IPO environment was defined by stops and starts, the net effect was constructive and sets a cautiously optimistic backdrop for 2026. The key question now is which companies are actively advancing toward public listings, as opposed to those merely reported to be considering them. At the time of writing, BitGo and EquipmentShare appear closest to the finish line. BitGo has already set an initial pricing range of $15 to $17 per share,13 while EquipmentShare is targeting $23.50 to $25.50 per share.14 Motive, which publicly filed an S-1, an initial step in an IPO, in December 2025,15 could also move to the next phase in the coming weeks.
A broader, though less definitive, signal comes from confidential filings. Discord16, Kraken17 and Strava18 have taken this step following sustained IPO speculation in 2025. While confidential submissions do not guarantee near-term listings, a timely transition to public S-1 filings would suggest possible intentions to go public in 2026.
The final category includes several of the most prominent private companies, though timing here remains speculative. Anthropic,19 Lambda,20 OpenAI21 and SpaceX22 have each made their most explicit statements to date about eventually becoming public companies, with 2026 cited as a possibility. For firms of Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX’s scale and complexity, however, the true inflection point will be the appearance of confidential or public filings. To get there, however, additional preparation time should be expected.
If the first wave of 2026 IPOs attracts strong investor demand, delivers healthy first-day performance and holds up in the aftermarket, a broader set of companies may be encouraged to follow. That virtuous cycle, largely absent in recent years, could finally reemerge making 2026 a year of genuine momentum rather than tentative recovery.
The private market continued to separate from the public market in December
The Forge Private Market Index (FPMI, +4.7%) and the Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI, +5.7%) both decisively beat the public indices in December as QQQ (-0.7%) and SPY (+0.1%) did not end 2025 with strong finishes. FPMI received positive contributions from Harness (+83.1%), SpaceX (+59.9%) and Anthropic (+46.8%). While FAPMI saw gains from SpaceX and Anduril (+13.0%). Both indices were held back by Ripple (-14.1%), which saw weakness amongst the broader crypto downturn.23 Strength in the private indices was a result of:
- SpaceX had a share sale at an $800 billion valuation24 and is reportedly considering a 2026 IPO25
- Anduril saw continued investor demand as it pursued its European expansion26
- Anthropic raised capital at a $350 billion valuation27 and is reportedly exploring an IPO28
- Gains in Harness were driven by a funding round at a $5.5 billion valuation29
Private market performance showed little in the way of ill effects from the prolonged government shutdown and finished 2025 with a compelling month.
| Index | L1M | L3M | L12M |
| FPMI | 4.7% | 16.0% | 94.7% |
| FAPMI | 6.3% | 12.5% | 62.8% |
| SPY | 0.1% | 2.7% | 17.7% |
| QQQ | -0.7% | 2.5% | 20.8% |
Forge Data through 12/31/2025
Buy-side indications of interest percentage strengthened over November
Buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) as a percentage of total interest on the Forge marketplace increased to 59% from 54% in November. Overall, the buy-side IOI percentage continued to move in an upward trend since reaching a low point in October 2022 despite some occasional significant decreases. The buy-side interest percentage hit a low of 26% in October 2022 and a high of 74% in December 2024.
Median and highest percentile trade premiums increase as other percentiles decline
Trade premiums were mixed in December compared to November. The 90th percentile rebounded sharply to 91% from 44%, while the median increased to -11% from -15%. The remaining percentiles declined, with the steepest decline happening in the 25th percentile, which decreased to -53% from -42% in November. Other percentiles saw more modest monthly declines with the 75th percentile decreasing to 7% from 11% and the 10th percentile decreasing to -85% from -79%.
About the Author
Shane Larkin is a private market investment leader with extensive experience in private and public markets, combining a strong analytical foundation with a background in engineering and business. He has conducted in-depth due diligence across a range of sectors, leveraging his expertise in financial modeling, data analysis and market research. Shane holds an MBA from Cornell Johnson Graduate School of Management. Read more from Shane.
