Private Market Update September 2025
The new Private Magnificent 7 represent staggering growth and $1.2 trillion in value
The private market is experiencing a period of significant growth, defined by record level valuations1 and a recent surge of investor enthusiasm.2 Since the end of 2022, the value of the top seven private companies — The Private Magnificent 7 (“Private Mag 7”) — quadrupled from $264 billion to $1.2 trillion in combined value,3 underscoring the scale and momentum that have reshaped the private market landscape over the past two years. The surge during this period has been powered by a concentrated group of category leaders with artificial intelligence (AI) fueling the strongest wave of private market growth. The newly refreshed Private Mag 74 reflects this dynamic shift, with an even stronger emphasis on AI-driven innovation.
Transformative companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks, Stripe, Anduril and xAI, have contributed positively to the private market — lifting valuations, driving liquidity and creating opportunities for new fundraising. The pace of growth of these companies has further outperformed some traditional public benchmarks and private ones, as well.
As such, Forge has refreshed the existing Private Mag 7 to include three new companies that give the group more of an AI focus. Specifically, the Private Mag 7 now includes:
- Anthropic: an AI company known for its ChatGPT rival, Claude™
- xAI: another AI company known for its ChatGPT rival, Grok™, founded by Elon Musk
- Anduril: an industrial defense tech company that specializes in autonomous systems and leverages AI
These three new companies have quickly grown to higher valuations than the three companies that they replaced in the first edition of the Private Magnificent 7— i.e. Fanatics, Rippling, and Scale AI. Meanwhile, the Private Mag 7 still includes Databricks, OpenAI, SpaceX and Stripe.5 Other global private companies like ByteDance also have had a significant impact6 on the overall returns of the private market for year-to-date, but the Private Mag 7 list only includes US-based companies.
This recalibration of the Mag 7 reflects how AI has become the largest wealth creation spree in recent history.7 While several different public and private indexes are up this year, the AI-heavy Private Mag 7 has outperformed the overall Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) and the S&P 500 over the past few years.8
This AI-powered rally has also been broadly generative for liquidity. The end of July into August saw private companies like Figma,9 Firefly Aerospace10 and Bullish11 burst into the public market, albeit with some dips since their initial IPO surge.
This IPO trend continued into September, with fintech and crypto companies including Klarna, Gemini and Figure Technology headlining the next iteration of large initial public offerings.12
That said, there remains mixed results in terms of how private companies are faring in this environment. For example, the noteworthy success of fintech companies like Klarna13, which just made its public offering, does not align with the broader universe of private fintech companies found in Forge’s fintech thematic basket, which fell –6.4% in August.14 This contrast echoes how the Mag 7 has been outpacing the broader private market. Zooming out even further, the overall economy has some key indicators moving upward while others languish, such as the current strong stock market,15 but tepid labor market.16
Still, from a private market investment perspective, recent developments show that there's plenty of opportunity to find private companies with positive returns, even if the gains are not universal.
The private market diverges, with Forge’s AI thematic basket trouncing the fintech basket
While the equal-weighted Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) continued its strong growth in August, gaining 6.1%, the cap-weighted Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) reversed course with a -5.5% return for the month. Part of that divergence reflects the different components of these indexes, such as with the FAPMI including fintech companies like Circle and Chime that have struggled lately, while the FPMI is composed of recent AI gainers like Anthropic and Perplexity.17
Ultimately though, AI companies in Forge’s AI thematic basket18 had the best returns of any Forge basket19 in August, with an impressive 15.3% gain (see chart below). Meanwhile, Forge’s fintech basket20 was the laggard, falling -6.4% for the month.21
Buy-side interest remains hot
In August, buy-side indications of interest (IOIs) ticked up again. Around two-thirds of all indications of interest (IOIs) in the Forge marketplace reflect buy-side interest. Although this still remains south of the recent 74% high in December 2024, it's comparable to where IOIs were during the late 2020/early 2021 boom.22 In general, when the balance is tilted toward buyers, that signals a strong market, whereas sellers might rush for the exits in a downturn.
Spreads continue to widen significantly
While the median trade premium/discount didn't change much from last month, falling slightly to -13%, the spreads widened significantly at the high and low ends. For private market shares trading at the 90th percentile of the trade premium/discount distribution, premiums jumped to 84%, up from 70% in July (see chart below). Meanwhile, trade discounts at the 10th percentile fell from -74% to -80%.23
These pricing gaps further reflect the divergence seen across markets, with the spoils going to the victors all the more. Overall, the private market looks relatively strong given the support from a select set of names, particularly in the AI space. Accordingly, the Private Mag 7, which is now even more weighted toward AI, has typically been outpacing the broader private market, and that trend does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
About the Author
Jay Manciocchi is a marketing and communications professional with experience in content marketing operations, digital marketing and event strategy. He most recently led these functions at BMC Software. He holds a JD from New England Law | Boston and a BS in Political Science from Northeastern University. Read more from Jay.
