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March highlights: Broader leadership emerged amid widening private market dispersion

By Andrew Alden, CFA
Emerging TrendsArtificial Intelligence

After an active start to 2026,1 the private market entered March on a more mixed - but still constructive - footing. Top-level index performance moderated from February, yet leadership broadened across several themes in March. At the same time, outcomes at the company level became more dispersed.

Forge’s Consumer,2 Artificial Intelligence,3 Chips4 and Fintech5 thematic baskets all posted gains during the month. These advances contributed to private market performance, even as public equities experienced a broad-based selloff.

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A more selective private market rally

In March, the equal-weighted  Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) declined -0.4%, while the cap-weighted Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) rose 1.0%.6 Public markets declined with SPY down -4.9% and QQQ falling -4.8%.

Beyond the headline index moves, however, was the divergence beneath the surface. While many companies and themes advanced, a small group of sharp decliners tempered otherwise broad gains across the private market.

Several companies posted outsized gains during the month, largely tied to recent financing activity. Ayar Labs (+75.3%) was the largest contributor to FPMI, benefiting from a Series E raise.7 OpenAI (+45.9%) drove strong performance across both the Private Magnificent 7 and Forge’s Artificial Intelligence basket following its pre-IPO financing.8

Within Fintech,Stripe (+16.0%) supported FAPMI and helped offset declines elsewhere in the basket. Consumer performance was led by Whoop (+167.4%), following a March Series G round,9 with additional support from Discord(+18.2%) and Zipline.SpaceX (+2.6%) contributed modestly but broadly, lifting FPMI, FAPMI, the Private Magnificent 7 and the Aerospace & Defense basket.

These gains were partially offset by a handful of notable declines.Upgrade (-30.9%) and Harness (-21.9%) weighed on both FPMI and FAPMI. SambaNova Systems (-38.5%) was the largest single detractor from FPMI, while Figma (-28.1%) weighed on FAPMI. Within Consumer, Eight Sleep (-35.9%) was a meaningful drag.

Consumer led, while AI and Chips remained strong

Leadership shifted meaningfully in March. The Consumer basket delivered the strongest performance, rising 14.1%, driven primarily by Whoop and supported by gains in Discord and Zipline.

Performance breadth extended to Artificial Intelligence, where the AI basket advanced 7.3%, led by OpenAI. Semiconductors also contributed, with the Chips basket up 4.1% on strength from Ayar Labs and Cerebras.

Fintech posted comparable gains, rising 4.1%, as Stripe’s advance more than offset weakness in Upgrade. The Aerospace & Defense basket10 finished modestly higher, up 0.8%, with gains in SpaceX partially offset by declines in Shield AI.

Taken together, March reflected a broadening of leadership, but not a uniform rally. Performance was driven by selective repricing across late-stage companies and themes, with dispersion increasing meaningfully at the company level.

IPO outlook: Selectivity remains key

March’s IPO narrative was shaped less by a broad reopening of the market and more by a small number of marquee names. SpaceX featured prominently in media coverage after reports, shortly following quarter-end, that the company had confidentially filed11 and was considering an unusually large proposed retail allocation.12 Cerebras also advanced its IPO preparations, renewing its efforts toward a potential listing.13

OpenAI remained part of the IPO conversation as well, with its financing structure and sustained investor interest keeping a future listing under consideration.14

Even so, March underscored that IPO anticipation alone was not sufficient to lift all late-stage names. The month reinforced a broader theme across private markets: leadership is widening, but returns are increasingly selective.

1 March Private Market Update, 03/17/2026

2 The Forge consumer thematic basket is currently composed of 11 consumer companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal consumer taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods. 

3 The Forge AI thematic basket is currently composed of 19 AI companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal AI taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.

4 The Forge Chips thematic basket is currently composed of 4 semiconductor companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Chips taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.

5 The Forge Fintech thematic basket is currently composed of 12 fintech companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Fintech taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods. 

6 Forge Data as of 03/31/2026

7 Ayar Labs, 03/03/2026

8 OpenAI, 03/31/2026

9 Whoop, 03/31/2026

The Forge Aerospace & Defense thematic basket is currently composed of 6 aerospace and defense companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Aerospace & Defense taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods. 

11 Bloomberg, 04/01/2026

12 Reuters, 03/26/2026

13 Bloomberg, 03/06/2026

14 CNBC, 03/31/2026

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About the Author

Andrew Alden, CFA, previously worked as the CIO of Semantiqa and as the Head of Quantitative Research at WeatherStorm Capital. With skills in asset and portfolio management, he brings a wealth of knowledge to his director role at Forge. Andrew has a Master of Financial Engineering from Haas School of Business, CA.

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Criteria for companies to be included in the Private Magnificent 7 include a minimum implied valuation of $10B, secondary market liquidity, brand awareness, and relative price performance.