June highlights: The private market rose as public tech sold off and IPO performance split
Private market benchmarks advanced in June even as public equities weakened amid a late-month tech selloff. The equal-weighted Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) rose 5.9%, while the cap-weighted Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) gained 6.5%. Public equities moved lower, with SPY down -1.0% and QQQ falling -0.1%. That weakness came during a volatile month-end stretch, with tech stocks selling off during the final full week of June even as the Nasdaq remained on track to wrap the quarter up roughly 27.7%.1
The IPO pipeline also became more concrete, but more discriminating. Anthropic (+0.0%) confidentially submitted a draft S-1 at the start of the month,2 OpenAI (-1.6%) announced a confidential S-1 submission on June 8.3 At the same time, SpaceX (SPCX +26.6% from IPO price through June 30) began trading under SPCX and closed its first day up nearly 20%.4 Meanwhile, Cerebras (-23.4%) later fell below its IPO price after its first post-listing earnings report.5
That split helped define the month. June was not simply a continuation of May's IPO-driven momentum; it was a rotation toward specific private market leaders, with the Forge Aerospace & Defense (A&D) thematic basket, Forge Fintech thematic basket and select AI infrastructure names doing the heavy lifting.
Private benchmarks advanced, but leadership rotated
SandboxAQ (+171.1%) was the largest visible contributor to FPMI, adding 3.07% to the equal-weighted benchmark and 1.29% to the Forge Artificial Intelligence (AI) thematic basket as the company was awarded $500 million by the government to develop new materials for semiconductor manufacturing.6 SambaNova Systems (+83.7%) added 2.07% to FPMI as the company is reportedly raising capital at a $10 billion valuation,7 while Ramp (+35.2%) contributed 0.65% to FPMI and 0.91% to FAPMI with the news of its $750 million round at a $44 billion valuation.8
SpaceX was the largest contributor to FAPMI, adding 5.06% to the cap-weighted benchmark and 11.10% to the Aerospace & Defense basket as the company successfully went public on June 12th.9 Crusoe Energy Systems (+55.3%) also supported FAPMI, adding 0.80%, while Databricks (+7.6%) contributed 0.50%.
Several decliners limited the upside. Harness (-29.3%) subtracted -0.42% from FPMI, while Epic Games (-18.7%) detracted -0.29% from FPMI and -2.98% from the Forge Consumer thematic basket. Cerebras detracted -0.98% from FAPMI after its sharp post-IPO reversal.10
A&D and Fintech led the thematic rotation
The A&D basket was the strongest theme in June, rising 12.41%. SpaceX was the dominant contributor, with additional support from Anduril (+3.5%) and Shield AI (+2.8%). Stoke Space (-19.9%) was the main offset, subtracting -0.63% from the basket.
The Fintech basket gained 5.41%, led by Ramp, which added 6.27% to the theme. Polymarket (+5.6%) contributed 0.53%, while Ripple (-6.2%) detracted -0.93%. The result was a cleaner positive contribution from fintech than in May, even as performance remained concentrated in a small set of names.
The AI basket rose 2.74%, helped by SandboxAQ, Databricks, Anduril and Replit (+33.0%). OpenAI detracted -0.31% from the theme. The Forge Chips thematic basket gained 4.62%, supported by Lightmatter (+14.0%) and Ayar Labs (+4.0%), while PsiQuantum (-4.0%) was a modest offset.
Consumer remained the weak spot
The Consumer basket declined -2.33%, extending the pattern of weakness from May, though at a less severe pace than the prior month's -9.39% decline. Epic Games was the primary drag.
IPO anticipation stayed central, even as performance split
June made the IPO story more tangible, and investor attention remained squarely focused on the pipeline based on market commentary and reported activity. Anthropic and OpenAI both moved into the confidential S-1 process, keeping frontier AI central to the expected private-company listing calendar. At the same time, the first wave of newly listed names showed that performance could diverge sharply even as IPO activity continued to drive market attention.
SpaceX's debut was initially well received, with SPCX opening at $150, above its $135 IPO price, and closing its first day at $160.95. Yahoo Finance chart data showed SPCX closing June 30 at $170.86, up 26.56% from the IPO price.11 That strength should also be read in the context of constrained supply: SpaceX entered public trading with a very small public float and a staggered lock-up release schedule, which can shape near-term trading dynamics.12 Cerebras, by contrast, became a cautionary example of post-listing volatility: after closing its first day at $311.07 in May, CBRS fell below its $185 IPO price in late June as investors reacted to margin pressure in its first earnings report.
That bifurcation matters for the private market, but it does not mean IPO momentum faded. Instead, June suggested that investors are still actively anticipating large private-company listings while becoming more precise about how they price each debut. Scarce, high-profile assets can still command strong attention, but the post-listing bar is rising quickly once companies begin trading with daily liquidity, fuller financial disclosure and evolving float dynamics.
June's rally was resilient, but narrow
Taken together, June showed that private market performance could diverge from public tech beta while still being framed by the reopening IPO narrative. Amid a public-market tech selloff, FPMI rose 5.9% and FAPMI gained 6.5%, with investors continuing to keep the prospective listing calendar in view as SpaceX, Cerebras, Anthropic and OpenAI shaped the month's market conversation. The month was constructive, but not broad: gains were concentrated in A&D, Fintech and select AI infrastructure names, while Consumer weakness and several sharp company-level decliners reinforced that private-market returns remain driven by company-specific catalysts rather than broad risk appetite alone.
