Liquid Death Upcoming IPO: Will it quench the public market's thirst?

Liquid Death, a beverage company famed for its clever marketing, could be gearing up for an IPO soon, but investors still await definitive plans. In July 2023, The Information reported that Liquid Death hired Goldman Sachs to prepare for an IPO as early as the spring of 2024.⁵ While that timing didn't come to fruition, the company has been growing its sales and valuation and appears primed for an eventual public debut, with CEO Mike Cessario telling Bloomberg in March 2024 that an IPO is an option the company wants to keep open.⁶

Liquid Death: Company Background

Liquid Death burst into the beverage market in 2019 with canned water and bold branding, playing off some of the prototypical messaging found in the beer and energy drink industries. Since then, the company has expanded from canned water into flavored sparkling water, iced tea, and electrolyte drink mixes.

The company has experienced rapid growth since its launch. Over the past three years, Liquid Death had more than triple-digit growth and reached $263 million in retail sales in 2023, the company reported in a press release, based on SPINS data.⁷

The company also has a broad distribution network, with its products in 113,000 stores in the U.S. and UK. ⁸ In addition to channels such as Amazon and physical retail stores, sales also come from areas such as bars and concerts, through a partnership with entertainment company Live Nation, which is also an investor in Liquid Death.

In October 2023, Liquid Death hired a former White Claw executive, Stephen Ballard, to serve as the company's chief commercial officer to help fuel growth.⁹

Standing Out in a Crowded, Yet Growing Market

Liquid Death's success hasn't been easy given the competition in the beverage market, but the company has thrived with its unique branding; its tagline, for example, is “Murder Your Thirst.” ¹⁰ With around 8 million followers across TikTok and Instagram, Liquid Death reports being the third-most-followed beverage company, trailing just Red Bull and Monster. ¹¹

Globally, the bottled water market — which includes different types such as still and sparkling, as well as different bottling methods including plastic and cans — is projected to grow at a 5.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2033, reaching over $550 billion in sales. ¹²

While Liquid Death has carved out a name for itself, it still has to compete in some ways with giants like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, along with more niche brands like Monster, Vita Coco, and Celsius. And while many investors may likely expect a tech giant to have the best-performing stock over the past 30 years, that title belongs to Monster (NASDAQ: MNST). ¹³ Liquid Death's CEO Cessario told Bloomberg that looking at brands like Celsius and Monster makes the IPO path an exciting one that Liquid Death wants to keep open. ¹⁴

Liquid Death Stock Price and Relative Performance

More recent private market data shows that Liquid Death’s Forge Price has risen as the company has grown. Based on Liquid Death’s Forge Price, the company has significantly outpaced the FoodTech sector of the Forge Private Market Index for both the YTD period and in Q2 thus far. Liquid Death has also strongly outpaced the overall Forge Private Market Index for both time periods as well.

Liquid Death’s performance versus its chief public market competitors shows mixed results over recent time periods. Liquid Death has outperformed shares of Monster in 2024 thus far. However, it’s worth noting that Monster’s valuation was over $54 billion as of June 10, 2024,¹⁵ nearly 50 times Liquid Death’s most recent valuation, as explained further below.

But investing in Monster during its fledgling state would have rewarded investors handsomely, with a staggering return of 200,000% for the 30-year time period between February 14, 1994, and February 14, 2024. That percentage return means that if an investor had put in $1,000 in 1994, the value would be approximately $2 million if they held onto the stock the entire time.¹⁶

The strong performance of shares of Celsius — which despite recent struggles have still outpaced Liquid Death this year — further shows the potential for growth within the bottled beverage space. Again, while investors should apply a heavy grain of salt comparing a public company worth more than $15 billion¹⁷ and relative newcomer Liquid Death, Celsius offers a case study for how beverage companies can capitalize on long-term trends to spur growth.¹⁸

Liquid Death Funding History and Private Market Valuation

As of April 30, 2024, Liquid Death has raised nearly $342 million in funding.¹⁹ The company recently completed an oversubscribed Series F-1 round, raising over $67 million at a valuation of $1.4 billion, which the company says it will put toward product innovation and scaling operations.²⁰

Investors in the most recent funding round include a mix of institutional investors, distributors, and celebrities. For example, SuRo Capital joined on as a new investor, while Science Inc., which has invested in Liquid Death dating back to its origins in 2019, re-invested alongside Live Nation and Gray’s Creek Capital Partners.²¹

This funding round continues a pattern of up rounds for Liquid Death. For instance, its Series A in February 2020 valued the company at nearly $50 million, and a Series D in October 2022 valued the company at a little over $700 million.²²

Before doubling its valuation with the most recent funding round, Liquid Death ran into some logistical hurdles, such as with ocean freight costs cutting into its margins. But the company was able to shift production from Austria to the U.S. in 2023, as Forbes reported.²³

Looking Ahead

Liquid Death's latest funding round gives the company more runway to potentially expand its product lineup and improve operations before a potential IPO. There’s obviously no guarantee that Liquid Death could climb anywhere near the valuations of public market competitors like Monster or Celsius, but Liquid Death certainly may have room to take market share within the lucrative bottled water market.

Check back here or take a look at Forge’s upcoming IPO calendar to stay in the loop about a possible Liquid Death IPO and other potential exits.

If you’re interested in investing in private companies like Liquid Death, read more about pre-IPO investing or register on Forge Markets today to get started.