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Insights

January highlights: The private market begins 2026 with broad-based strength

By Shane Larkin
Private Market Updates

The private market entered 2026 with renewed momentum, as January delivered broad-based strength across sectors. Performance was led by a sharp rally in the Forge Chips thematic basket,1 while Fintech2 and Aerospace & Defense3 continued to show upside. Both the Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) and Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) posted gains to start the year, extending the divergence between private and public markets that emerged in 2025. 

Private market indices led public market indices in January 

The equal-weighted FPMI advanced 4.4% in January, while the cap-weighted FAPMI rose 1.8%. In contrast, public market benchmarks delivered more modest returns, with SPY up 1.5% and QQQ gaining 1.2%.  

FPMI was boosted by Cerebras (+53.9%), Lyten (+45.7%) and EquipmentShare’s IPO (+35.0%).4 FAPMI benefited from Stripe (+20.1%) but was held back by publicly traded Figma (-30.6%) as the index holds newly public names for one year from their IPO.

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Chips Take the Lead

The most notable thematic development in January was leadership from the Forge Chips thematic basket, which emerged as the top-performing basket with a 24.5% gain. Performance was driven primarily by Cerebras (+53.9%), which represents the largest position within the basket, alongside modest strength across other semiconductor-related names.

Fintech also delivered a strong month, advancing 4.2%. Gains from Stripe (+20.1%) and Polymarket (+19.7%) more than offset weakness in Ripple, which declined 8.1%.

Aerospace & Defense rose 3.4% in January, supported by gains in SpaceX (+6.2%) and Saronic (+4.3%). Investor appetite for companies aligned with national security, space infrastructure, and autonomous defense systems remained steady, extending a trend that carried through much of 2025.

Looking Ahead

January’s performance points to a private market entering 2026 with continued momentum from 2025 and more than just AI as a theme. At the same time, capital formation activity continued to strengthen. Recent funding rounds for Anthropic,5 xAI,6 and Zipline,7 along with a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026,8 are reinforcing expectations for one of the more active capital raising cycles on record.

1 The Forge Chips thematic basket is currently composed of 4 semiconductor companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Chips taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods. 

2 The Forge Fintech thematic basket is currently composed of 12 fintech companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Fintech taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.

3 The Forge Aerospace & Defense thematic basket is currently composed of 6 aerospace and defense companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Aerospace & Defense taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.

4 Reuters, 01/23/2026

5 CNBC, 01/07/2026

6 CNBC, 01/06/2026

7 TechCrunch, 01/21/2026

8 Reuters, 01/28/2026

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About the Author

Shane Larkin is a private market investment leader with extensive experience in private and public markets, combining a strong analytical foundation with a background in engineering and business. He has conducted in-depth due diligence across a range of sectors, leveraging his expertise in financial modeling, data analysis and market research. Shane holds an MBA from Cornell Johnson Graduate School of Management. Read more from Shane.

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