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Insights

February highlights: The private market builds on January momentum

By Shane Larkin
Emerging Trends

Building off a strong January,1the private market continued its rise in February. Performance was again led by a sharp rally in the Forge Chips thematic basket,2 while Forge’s Aerospace & Defense basket3 also achieved double-digit performance during February. Both the Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) and Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) extended gains from January and outpaced the public market.

February saw private market indices outperform public market benchmarks

The equal-weighted FPMI4 advanced 11.5% in February, while the cap-weighted FAPMI rose 9.2%. In contrast, public market benchmarks were negative during February, with SPY down 0.9 % and QQQ falling 2.3%.

FPMI was boosted by the AI chip trinity of Groq (+115.0%), SambaNova (+110.2%) and Cerebras(+35.0%). FAPMI benefited from Stripe (+43.3%) and SpaceX but was held back by Ripple.

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Chips continue to shine

The Forge Chips thematic basket followed a strong January with an even stronger February. The basket produced a 33.3% gain, besting its 24.5% gain in January. Performance was driven primarily by the aforementioned Cerebras, which was fresh off a $1 billion funding round at a $23 billion valuation.5

Forge’s Aerospace & Defense basket also delivered a strong month, advancing 24.7%. Gains from SpaceX’s announced merger with xAI and intent to go public6 and Shield AI’s (+81.7%) reported $1 billion funding round at a $12 billion valuation7 drove the basket’s gains.

Although somewhat overshadowed by Chips and Aerospace & Defense, the Fintech8 and AI baskets9 both had positive returns. Fintech, led by Stripe, which had a tender offer at a $159 billion valuation,10rose 5.6% in February, while AI saw a gain of 4.7% driven by Cerebras, Groq and Shield AI.

IPO outlook

IPO activity in February didn’t match the levels seen in January.11 Weakness in the public market potentially put a damper on enthusiasm at the beginning of 2026. While it may not happen until this summer,12 further progress on SpaceX’s IPO could go a long way toward bringing excitement back to the public market.

1 Forge Insights, 02/09/2026

2 The Forge Chips thematic basket is currently composed of 4 semiconductor companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Chips taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.

3 The Forge Aerospace & Defense thematic basket is currently composed of 6 aerospace and defense companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Aerospace & Defense taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.

4 The FPMI index methodology assigns equal weights to all constituents at each scheduled rebalance date.

5 Reuters, 02/04/2026

6 CNBC, 02/02/2026

7 Bloomberg, 02/13/2026

8 The Forge Fintech thematic basket is currently composed of 12 fintech companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Fintech taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.

9 The Forge AI thematic basket is currently composed of 19 AI companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal AI taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.

10 CNBC, 02/24/2026

11 Bloomberg, 02/18/2026

12 Bloomberg, 01/28/2026

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About the Author

Shane Larkin is a private market investment leader with extensive experience in private and public markets, combining a strong analytical foundation with a background in engineering and business. He has conducted in-depth due diligence across a range of sectors, leveraging his expertise in financial modeling, data analysis and market research. Shane holds an MBA from Cornell Johnson Graduate School of Management. Read more from Shane.

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