April highlights: The private market advanced modestly in April as public equities rebounded sharply
The private market moved higher in April, but the advance was measured compared with the sharp rebound across public equities. After March’s more uneven backdrop, April brought positive performance across the Forge private market benchmarks, supported by strength in the Forge Chips and Aerospace & Defense thematic baskets, and select company-level gains.
The equal-weighted Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) rose 0.10%, while the cap-weighted Forge Accuidity Private Market Index (FAPMI) gained 1.18%. Public markets were considerably stronger, with SPY up 10.51% and QQQ rising 15.69%.
That gap was one of the defining features of the month. The private market participated in the broader improvement in risk appetite, but gains were far more selective than the public market rally. Performance was concentrated in a handful of companies and themes, while several notable decliners offset otherwise constructive movement beneath the surface.
A selective private market advance
April’s headline private market returns were modest, but company-level dispersion remained meaningful.
Kalshi (+102.68%) was the largest visible contributor to the cap-weighted benchmark, adding 1.01% to FAPMI. The move followed a reported March financing round led by Coatue Management, in which Kalshi raised more than $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, roughly doubling its value from its prior round just a few months earlier.1 The quick follow-on round underscored continued investor demand for regulated prediction-market infrastructure, even as the category remains subject to regulatory scrutiny.
Cerebras (+10.90%) was one of the most important contributors to the Forge indexes, adding 0.51% to FPMI and 0.23% to FAPMI. It also drove much of the strength in the Forge Chips thematic basket, contributing 6.62% to the theme. The move came as Cerebras advanced toward the public markets and filed its S-1 on April 17th.2
Saronic (+35.19%) was another notable gainer, particularly within Forge’s Aerospace & Defense basket. The company added 2.20% to Aerospace & Defense and 0.34% to the Forge Artificial Intelligence basket, reflecting continued investor interest in autonomous defense platforms and dual-use technology. The move followed Saronic’s late-March $1.75 billion Series D, led by Kleiner Perkins, which valued the company at $9.25 billion and was intended to help scale autonomous maritime platforms across defense and commercial markets.3
Several sharp decliners limited the broader upside. Rippling (-27.07%) and Automation Anywhere (-21.21%) each subtracted -0.53% from FPMI, with Rippling also reducing FAPMI by -0.48%. OpenAI (-1.79%) weighed on Artificial Intelligence, subtracting 0.40% from the basket. PsiQuantum (-2.83%) reduced Chips basket performance by 0.58%, while Zipline International (-5.01%) detracted from both Forge’s Consumer and Artificial Intelligence baskets.
Chips and Aerospace & Defense led thematic performance
The strongest thematic return came from Chips, which rose 6.04% in April. Cerebras was the primary driver, more than offsetting weakness from PsiQuantum.
Aerospace & Defense basket also posted a strong month, gaining 3.49%. Saronic was the largest contributor, with additional support from SpaceX and Anduril. The basket’s performance reflected continued investor focus on defense technology, autonomy and frontier infrastructure.
Forge’s Artificial Intelligence basket rose 0.94%. Gains from Cerebras, Saronic, Anthropic and Anduril helped offset weakness in OpenAI and Zipline International.
Other themes were positive but more muted. Forge’s Fintech basket gained 0.68%, supported by Ramp (+2.14%) despite weakness in Ripple (-3.33%). Forge’s Consumer basket rose 0.14%, as strength from Eight Sleep (+64.57%) was largely offset by weakness in Zipline International.
IPO outlook: Specific catalysts, not just broad anticipation
April also brought renewed focus to the private market IPO pipeline, although the narrative remained concentrated in a small group of high-profile names.
SpaceX remained the highest-profile potential listing in April as new reports added detail around timing, valuation, and potential investor demand. Early reports indicated that the company had confidentially filed with the SEC4 and was targeting a June-July 2026 listing window. The offering could raise $40 billion-$80 billion,5 with Saudi PIF reportedly in talks for a $5 billion anchor investment.6 Later reports pointed to investor meetings around valuation targets ranging from $1.75 trillion to more than $2 trillion.7 SpaceX was also reportedly in discussions with E*Trade around a possible retail allocation,8 while accelerated employee stock-award vesting9 and prospective anchor-investor site visits10 suggested continued preparation for a public listing.
Cerebras also moved from IPO watchlist to active deal execution. Prior reporting pointed to a mid-May debut and a target valuation around $40 billion.11 More recent terms indicated that the company planned to offer 28 million shares at $115-$125 per share, raising up to roughly $3.5 billion at the top of the range.12 Cerebras is expected to list on Nasdaq under the ticker CBRS. That made Cerebras one of the clearest near-term tests of public market demand for private AI infrastructure and semiconductor exposure.
Anthropic and OpenAI remained part of the IPO conversation, but for different reasons. Anthropic’s IPO discussion was still exploratory: April reporting described potential timing in the 6-9 month range, and later coverage included the company among possible late-2026 candidates as secondary market interest stayed elevated.13 By early May, reporting also suggested that Anthropic’s large private financing round could be its final raise before a possible listing later this year.14 OpenAI’s signal was different: reports indicated the company was laying groundwork for a potential H2 2026 IPO and considering a structure that would reserve shares for individual investors, keeping it central to the debate around how frontier AI platforms might come to market.15
Catalysts mattered more than broad market direction. Still, April showed that IPO anticipation alone was not enough to lift all late-stage private companies. Public equities rallied sharply, but private market gains were more restrained and company specific. Investors appeared willing to reward companies with clearer financing catalysts, category leadership or near-term public market relevance, while other names continued to lag.
Taken together, April was constructive, but not indiscriminate. Private market benchmarks moved higher, Chips and Aerospace & Defense led thematic basket performance and IPO momentum continued to build around select leaders. Yet dispersion remained the defining feature of the month, reinforcing that private market returns are increasingly being shaped by company-level catalysts rather than broad beta alone.
