Startup Trends: OpenAI vs. Anthropic in the race to become AI’s first public-market giant
Earlier this year, OpenAI and Anthropic appeared to be laying the groundwork for a potential entrance into the public markets. Since then, that possibility has moved closer to reality.
Both artificial intelligence companies have now confidentially submitted draft registration statements to the Securities and Exchange Commission, formally beginning the regulatory process that could lead to two of the largest technology IPOs in history. Anthropic reportedly filed first, followed shortly thereafter by OpenAI in June.1,2
Their latest financial results have added a new dimension to the race. Both companies are projected to generate billions of dollars this year, demonstrating that demand for generative AI has moved beyond experimentation and into large-scale commercial adoption.3,4
For private market investors, the competition is no longer simply about which company has the most recognizable chatbot or the highest valuation. It is increasingly about which company can translate AI adoption into durable revenue and manage the enormous cost of developing frontier models while becoming profitable. Ultimately, both companies will be challenged to convince public-market investors that their growth can continue.
Another emerging challenge is the pace of product development. In an essay published this month, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei wrote, “We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models,” pointing to the need for more time to understand, monitor and mitigate potential risks to human safety. Amodei added that AI development may still appear rapid, but should proceed with greater consideration for humanity’s welfare. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman echoed that sentiment, agreeing that AI should serve people and that increasingly capable models must remain aligned with human interests.5
OpenAI, the consumer AI leader
San Francisco-based OpenAI helped ignite the generative AI boom with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. The company has since expanded its platform across consumer subscriptions, enterprise software, application programming interfaces and products such as Codex, Sora and DALL-E.
In June, OpenAI confidentially filed IPO paperwork with the SEC, officially entering the public-listing process.6 A confidential submission allows the company to receive feedback from regulators before publicly releasing its prospectus and detailed financial statements. Although the filing could position OpenAI to list as soon as this fall, the company reportedly had not determined the timing of an offering.7
OpenAI’s latest reported results illustrate both the scale of its business and the challenges it may need to address before a public debut. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has reached $40 billion this year.8 Of that amount, a projected $1 billion would come from OpenAI’s newly launched advertising business, which Anthropic has yet to develop.9
However, its losses also deepened as the company continued investing heavily in computing infrastructure and model development.10
OpenAI has made customer reach its central advantage. ChatGPT has made the OpenAI brand nearly synonymous with generative AI, providing the company with a large audience that it can attempt to monetize through subscriptions, advertising, enterprise tools and other services. OpenAI has also increased its focus on business customers through products such as Codex and its broader workplace platform as it competes more directly with Anthropic for corporate spending.11
For prospective public-market investors, a key question may be whether OpenAI can convert that widespread adoption into improving operating leverage. Training and running advanced models require substantial spending on chips, data centers and electricity. Revenue growth alone may not be enough if the cost of serving users and developing increasingly powerful systems continues to rise at a similar or faster rate.
Founded in 2015, OpenAI’s Forge Price™ was $721.85 as of September 10, 2026, implying a valuation of $894.33 billion. The company’s notable investors include Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank, Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz.
Anthropic, the enterprise AI challenger
Also headquartered in San Francisco, Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former OpenAI employees and siblings Dario and Daniela Amodei. The company has built its business around the Claude family of AI models, with an emphasis on enterprise applications, coding and AI safety.
Anthropic reportedly submitted its confidential IPO registration ahead of OpenAI, giving it an early procedural advantage in the race to list.12 More recently, the company has moved closer to selecting Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs for prominent roles in a potential offering. It was further reported that Anthropic could publicly unveil its prospectus and move toward a listing in late September or early October, although the timing and terms remain subject to change. 13
Its recent financial performance may strengthen its case with public investors. Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate reportedly surpassed $65 billion by the end of July, well ahead of the estimated $40 billion for OpenAI.14 The figures indicate how quickly Anthropic’s commercial business has expanded, with much of that momentum attributed to enterprise demand.
One of Anthropic’s enterprise products, Claude Code, has become an especially important part of Anthropic’s growth story. The product allows developers to use Claude to write, review and modify software, positioning Anthropic within a category where customers may use AI frequently and integrate it deeply into existing workflows. Those characteristics can potentially produce recurring revenue and higher switching costs than consumer chatbot usage alone.15
Yet Anthropic will face many of the same questions as OpenAI. Investors will want to understand the company’s dependence on cloud partners, customer concentration, model-development costs and whether its rapid growth can be sustained. Its unusual governance structure could also receive scrutiny. Anthropic’s Long-Term Benefit Trust has the authority to appoint most of its board, an arrangement designed to preserve the company’s public-benefit mission but one that could limit the influence of traditional shareholders following an IPO.16
Anthropic’s May 2026 Series H financing reportedly priced shares at $589.01, resulting in a post-money valuation of $965 billion. Notable investors include Amazon, Altimeter Capital, Sequoia Capital, BlackRock, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Coatue Management.
What the developments could mean
When examining this competition in February, OpenAI held the valuation and consumer-adoption advantages, while Anthropic had established a stronger position among enterprise customers.17 The latest developments suggest those distinctions remain, but the financial balance has shifted.
OpenAI continues to benefit from one of the most recognizable brands in technology and a massive global user base of approximately 1 billion.18 Anthropic, however, has translated its enterprise and developer focus into faster reported revenue growth and a potential lead in IPO timing. If Anthropic lists first, it could establish the initial public-market valuation benchmark for a frontier AI company and gain access to additional capital before its largest private competitor.
Listing first would not necessarily indicate stronger long-term business performance. The first public prospectus will also expose that company’s financial performance, infrastructure commitments, customer concentration and governance structure to greater scrutiny. Whichever company follows may then have an opportunity to learn from the market’s response and refine its own offering.
For private market investors and existing shareholders, the filings represent an important transition. OpenAI and Anthropic are moving from companies valued largely through private funding rounds and secondary-market activity toward businesses that may soon be judged through audited financial statements and quarterly results.
The race is therefore about more than reaching the stock market first. It is a test of whether the extraordinary adoption of generative AI can support sustainable public companies, and whether OpenAI’s consumer scale or Anthropic’s enterprise momentum will prove more compelling when public investors finally have the opportunity to decide.
