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Q4 2023Forge Investment
Outlook

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Q4 2023
Emerging Signs of Stability
October 12, 2023 

It was a tale of two quarters in one. Positive trends in July and August signaled a potential rebound for the private market, but data softened in September. Still, the Forge Private Market Index returned +1.1%, and two VC-backed companies completed IPOs.

Inside the Report

  • Market Performance — See how the Forge Private Market Index performed relative to public market indices, along with private market returns by sector and company

  • Secondary Market Activity — Gain an in-depth look at quarterly changes in private market premium/discount levels, bid-ask spreads, and right of first refusal (ROFR) data

  • Primary Market Activity — Get insights into fundraising trends, including amount raised, valuations, time between rounds, and how investors are seeking greater protections

  • Mutual Fund Marks — See notable changes in how large asset managers are valuing their private market holdings

  • Exit Activity — Get a snapshot of IPOs and other exits during the quarter, including analysis of pricing levels

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The Forge Private Market Index turned positive, outperforming public markets

For the first time since 2021, the Forge Private Market Index posted positive performance. The index’s +1.1% return outpaced the negative performance of major public market indices, which struggled late in the quarter.

Broad dispersion among private market sectors and companies in Q3

For the quarter, more sectors posted positive or flat performance than those producing negative returns. Index components displayed a wide range of results, potentially creating opportunities for active investors seeking alpha in private market sectors and individual companies.

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Authors
Andrew Alden, CFA
Senior Director of Quantitative Research, Forge

Prior to this role, Andrew launched Semantiqa, an investment management firm focused on the public-market growth equities space. Andrew has also held researcher positions at WeatherStorm Capital and Lattice Strategies (now Hartford Funds).

Dan Chaparian
VP, Product Marketing, Forge

Prior to joining Forge, Dan was VP, Global Product Marketing, for BlackRock's iShares ETF business. He previously held positions at Apple and Uber and is a former startup founder.

Craig Derbenwick
Senior Director, Content Strategy, Forge

Craig Derbenwick is Senior Director of Content Strategy at Forge. In his role, he leads the development and execution of cross-channel marketing and thought leadership content. Prior to Forge, he spent 15 years in financial marketing roles and as a consultant for asset management and fintech companies.

Riley Martin
Senior Data Analyst, Forge

Before joining Forge, Riley was a Consultant for Strategy and Analytics at Deloitte assisting large tech clients with in-depth analysis of global data. 

Disclaimers

About Forge

Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Forge”) is a leading provider of marketplace infrastructure, data services and technology solutions for private market participants.

Legal Notices and Disclosures

© 2023 Forge Global, Inc. and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors, is highly speculative, is high risk, and you should be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are highly illiquid and there is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities. Each investment carries its own risks, and you should conduct your own due diligence regarding the investment, including obtaining independent professional advice.

Past performance Is not indicative of future results.

This is not a recommendation, offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities by Forge Securities LLC (“FSEC”) or any of its affiliates, nor an offer of brokerage services in any jurisdiction where FSEC is not permitted. Registered representatives of FSEC do not (1) advise any party on the merits of a particular transaction; (2) assist in the determination of fair value of any security; or (3) provide legal, tax, or transactional advisory services. Securities and investments are offered to customers of FSEC, member FINRA & SIPC. See Forge’s Disclosure Library (Disclaimers & Disclosures and Form CRS) for additional disclosures.

The information contained herein is based on currently available information, and Forge undertakes no obligation to update any of such information or to reflect new information or the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as required by law. While Forge believes such information forms a reasonable basis for the contents of this Investment Outlook, such information may be limited or incomplete, and this content should not be read to indicate that Forge has conducted an exhaustive inquiry into, or review of, all potentially available relevant information.

This Investment Outlook contains trademarks, service marks, trade names and copyrights of Forge and may contain those of other companies, which are the property of their respective owners. The use or display of third parties’ trademarks, service marks, trade names or products is not intended to, and does not imply, a relationship with Forge or any of its respective affiliates, or an endorsement or sponsorship by or of Forge or such affiliates. Solely for convenience, some of the trademarks, service marks, trade names and copyrights referred to in this Investment Outlook may be listed without the TM, SM, (c) or (R) symbols, but Forge will assert, to the fullest extent under applicable law, the right of the applicable owners, if any, to these trademarks, service marks, trade names and copyrights.

The performance of the Forge Private Market Index with respect to the growth of $10,000 shown herein does not represent the performance of any actual investment, as you cannot invest in the index, but rather reflects the hypothetical growth of a $10,000 investment in a basket of securities based on the index. Additionally, the chart assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains in the constituent securities but does not reflect any fees or commissions that may be incurred in purchasing or selling such securities, which would lower the figures shown if included. Further, $10,000 may not be a sufficient amount to invest simultaneously in all securities contributing to the performance shown, which would further prevent an investor from matching the performance shown. The performance shown represents past performance, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

The Forge Private Market Index is calculated and disseminated by Forge Data LLC ("Forge Data") and is a mark of Forge Data. The Forge Private Market Index is solely for informational purposes and is based upon information from sources believed to be reliable. It is not possible to invest in the Forge Private Market Index, and Forge Data makes no assurance that any investment products based on or underlying the Forge Private Market Index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. Forge Data is not an investment adviser and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any asset classes or investment vehicles. Private company securities are highly illiquid, and the Forge Private Market Index may rely on a very limited number of trade and/or indication of interest inputs in its calculation. Please see Forge Private Market Index Disclaimers & Acknowledgments for other important disclaimers, disclosures and restrictions related to the Forge Private Market Index that you acknowledge by downloading this content and to which you are subject. References to "Returns" in the context of the Forge Private Market Index Price are hypothetical in nature. The percentages displayed indicate the per-share change in percentage in the Forge Private Market Index Price of the applicable constituent, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent unless otherwise indicated.