Forge Investment Outlook Q1 2025

Increased Private Market Optimism and AI’s Continued Surge

The private market landscape in Q1 2025 reveals a nuanced investment environment shaped by emerging technologies, surging interest in artificial intelligence (AI), and ongoing valuation adjustments in the wake of the Great Reset. While the private market has long been an attractive avenue for growth-oriented investors, recent developments in the global economy and macroeconomic forces have introduced significant opportunities. Here, we take a look back at 2024 and explore the outlook for Q1 2025, including the key factors that are likely to define private market investing in the months ahead.

By Howe Ng, Andrew Alden, CFA, Lindsay Riddell, and Louis Metzger

January 30, 2025

Forge Investment Outlook Private Market Data & Analytics

Key Takeaways

2024 AI investments surged significantly. In 2024, trading in AI and AI-related companies accounted for 34% of all private market trading volume, while it was 32% of all primary funding. 40% of the Forge Private Market Index (FPMI) was composed of AI and AI-related companies. In addition, similar to the Public Magnificent 7, the Private Market Magnificent 7 is almost entirely composed of AI and AI-related companies and the top performers on the Forge Markets platform are all AI and AI-related companies, too.
In 2024, private company exits increased vs. the prior year, marked by a modest rise in IPOs. The Forge Private Market Index rose nearly 5% from January to November 2024, reflecting this positive trend. Notably, the first quarter saw high-profile IPOs, such as Astera Labs and Reddit, which contributed to the index's 4.5% increase during that period. Post-presidential election, ServiceTitan popped 42% in the cloud software vendor’s Nasdaq debut, which further bolstered public optimism for IPOs.
In the latter part of 2024, increased macroeconomic and political certainty fostered a more promising outlook among investors and businesses. Despite earlier concerns about a potential U.S. recession, the labor market demonstrated resilience, with a relative low number of layoffs contributing to sustained consumer spending. The soft landing the economy experienced suggested a more favorable economic environment than originally expected and gave way to new opportunities.

INSIDE THE REPORT

Three Key Takeaways from 2024 8
2024: Year in Review 9
Market Performance 12
Private Market Activity 19
Secondary Market Activity 25
Mutual Fund Marks 31
Exit Activity 34

Access the full report to see how Forge’s Private AI Basket of seven companies spiked to 51.3% in the second half of 2024 and outperformed the S&P 500 during the same period; ultimately, setting an enthusiastic tone for private market AI investments in early-2025.

Authors

Howe Ng

Head of Data and Investment Solutions

Howe Ng is the Head of Data and Investment Solutions at Forge Global. Prior to Forge, Howe held senior roles at BlackRock and Barclays Global Investors, including in their iShares ETF and Systematic Active Equity Portfolio Management divisions. He also served as Chief Operating Officer at Nipun Capital, an alternative asset management firm focusing on EM and Asian strategies.

Andrew Alden

Vice President of Quantitative Research

Andrew Alden, CFA, serves as Vice President of Quantitative Research at Forge Global, where he leads a research team focused on the private market. Prior to this role, Andrew launched Semantiqa, an investment management firm, which focused on the public-market growth equities space.

Lindsay Riddell

EVP, Corporate Marketing and Communications

Lindsay Riddell is EVP of Corporate Marketing & Communications at Forge Global. Prior to joining Forge, Lindsay ran the Corporate & Executive Communications at Hotwire Global, a technology PR firm. She was a technology and financial journalist for 18 years, including at the San Francisco Business Times.

Louis Metzger

Senior Data Analyst

Louis is a Senior Data Analyst at Forge Global, focusing on valuations and private market trends. Before joining Forge, Louis worked in corporate finance at Initiative Media and was a startup founder.

Disclaimers

About Forge

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© 2025 Forge Global, Inc. and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors, is highly speculative, is high risk, and you should be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are highly illiquid and there is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities. Each investment carries its own risks, and you should conduct your own due diligence regarding the investment, including obtaining independent professional advice. Past performance Is not indicative of future results.

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The Forge Private Market Index is calculated and disseminated by Forge Data LLC ("Forge Data") and is a mark of Forge Data. All rights reserved. The Forge Private Market Index is solely for informational purposes and is based upon information from sources believed to be reliable. It is not possible to invest in the Forge Private Market Index, and Forge Data makes no assurance that any investment products based on or underlying the Forge Private Market Index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment performance. Forge Data is not an investment adviser and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any asset classes or investment vehicles. Private company securities are highly illiquid, and the Forge Private Market Index may rely on a very limited number of trade and/or IOI inputs in its calculation. Brokerage products and services are offered by Forge Securities, a registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. By downloading this content, you acknowledge that you have reviewed and are subject to the Forge Private Market Index disclaimers and disclosures which contains other important disclaimers, disclosures and restrictions related to the Forge Private Market Index. Additionally, if you are accessing this content away from forgeglobal.com, you acknowledge that you have reviewed and are subject to Forge’s Terms of Use with respect to use and distribution of information as if you were accessing this content on forgeglobal.com.