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December highlights: The private market continued to pull away from the public market

By Andrew Alden, CFA
Artificial Intelligence

FPMI (+4.7%) and FAPMI (+5.7%) both decisively beat the public indices in December as QQQ (-0.7%) and SPY (+0.1%) did not end 2025 with strong finishes.

FPMI received positive contributions from Harness (+83.1%), SpaceX (+59.9%) and Anthropic (+46.8%). While FAPMI saw gains from SpaceX and Anduril (+13.0%). Both indices were held back by Ripple (-14.1%), which saw weakness amongst the broader crypto downturn.1 Specifically:

  • SpaceX had a share sale at an $800 billion valuation2 and is reportedly preparing for a 2026 IPO3
  • Anduril saw continued investor demand as it pursued its European expansion4
  • Anthropic raised capital at a $350 billion valuation5 and is reportedly exploring an IPO6
  • Gains in Harness were driven by a funding round at a $5.5 billion valuation7
Expand Image

Forge’s Aerospace & Defense and Artificial Intelligence thematic baskets continued their upward momentum during December and led all Forge baskets in 2025

The Forge Aerospace & Defense basket8 outpaced the Forge AI basket9 for the month of December with a 29.6% return vs. a 9.5% return. Forge’s Aerospace & Defense basket was bolstered by SpaceX and Anduril, while Anthropic pushed AI higher.

The weakest performing basket was Fintech with -3.8%. Both Upgrade (-20.6%) and Ripple contributed to the negative performance. The Fintech basket registered gains early and appreciated 104.6% during 2025 but was only up 5.2% for the second half of the year. Cybersecurity also had a weak December at -1.2% as publicly traded Netskope (-4.6%) held the basket back.

Historic IPOs could emerge in 2026

Following elevated private market activity in 2025, market participants continue to monitor potential IPO developments involving companies such as OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic.10 While these companies have attracted significant attention,11 2026 could possibly also see broader IPO activity among VC-backed companies,12 reflecting potentially continued market interest carried over from 2025.13

1 The Guardian, 12/29/2025

2 Reuters, 12/12/2025

3 Bloomberg, 12/09/2025

4 Bloomberg, 12/16/2025

5 CNBC, 11/18/2025

6 CNBC, 12/02/2025

7 TechCrunch, 12/11/2025

8 The Forge Aerospace & Defense thematic basket is currently composed of 6 aerospace and defense companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal Aerospace & Defense taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods. 

9 The Forge AI thematic basket is currently composed of 19 AI companies identified pursuant to Forge’s internal AI taxonomy. While Forge believes the taxonomy it currently applies is reasonable based on information collected and analyzed by Forge, this taxonomy may be updated from time to time to reflect new information and trends. Accordingly, the performance of this basket may not be comparable to prior or future periods.   

10 Financial Times, 01/01/2026

11 Bloomberg, 01/06/2026

12 Barrons, 01/02/2026

13 Inc., 12/10/2025

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Buy Or Sell Shares
OpenAI
$723.00-$0.12 (-0.02%)
LFR Post-Money Valuation
$500B
Anthropic
$272.98+$2.98 (1.1%)
LFR Post-Money Valuation
$183B
SpaceX
$436.21-$2.28 (-0.52%)
LFR Post-Money Valuation
$46.08B
About the Author

Andrew Alden, CFA, previously worked as the CIO of Semantiqa and as the Head of Quantitative Research at WeatherStorm Capital. With skills in asset and portfolio management, he brings a wealth of knowledge to his director role at Forge. Andrew has a Master of Financial Engineering from Haas School of Business, CA.

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