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Q1 2024 Forge Investment
Outlook

For Professional Investors Only

Q4 Brings Shift as Private Market Shakes Off Frost

January 30, 2024

After a long period of relative inertia, some Q4 private market metrics signal that change may be on the horizon, while a small number of companies had an outsized impact on index performance during the quarter.

Inside the Report
  • Market Performance — See how the Forge Private Market Index performed relative to public market indices, along with private market returns by sector and company

  • Secondary Market Activity — Gain an in-depth look at quarterly changes in private market premium/discount levels, bid-ask spreads, and right of first refusal (ROFR) data

  • Primary Market Activity — Get insights into fundraising trends, including amount raised, valuations, time between rounds, and how investors are seeking greater protections

  • Mutual Fund Marks — See notable changes in how large asset managers are valuing their private market holdings

  • Exit Activity — Get a snapshot of IPOs and other exits during the quarter, including analysis of pricing levels

The Forge Private Market Index returned -5% for the quarter

During Q4, the Forge Private Market Index declined -5%, though the performance was driven more by a handful of names rather than broad market performance.

Wide disparity among private market sectors and companies in Q4

During the fourth quarter, there was significant performance disparity across and within sectors, highlighting the diverse components of the Forge Private Market Index. 

Authors
Andrew Alden, CFA
Senior Director of Quantitative Research, Forge

Prior to joining Forge, Andrew launched Semantiqa, an investment management firm focused on the public-market growth equities space. Andrew has also held researcher positions at WeatherStorm Capital and Lattice Strategies (now Hartford Funds).

Dan Chaparian
VP, Product Marketing, Forge

Before joining Forge, Dan was VP, Global Product Marketing, for BlackRock's iShares ETF business. He previously held positions at Apple and Uber and is a former startup founder.

Craig Derbenwick
Senior Director, Content Strategy, Forge

Prior to his role at Forge, Craig was a marketing consultant serving global and boutique investment management and fintech clients. He has also held marketing roles at UBS Asset Management, Brookfield Asset Management, and Envestnet Asset Management.

Riley Martin
Senior Data Analyst, Forge

Before joining Forge, Riley was a Consultant for Strategy and Analytics at Deloitte assisting large tech clients with in-depth analysis of global data.

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The performance shown represents past performance, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors, is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and you should be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are highly illiquid and there is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities. Each investment also carries its own specific risks and investors should conduct their own, independent due diligence regarding the investment, including obtaining additional information about the company, opinions, financial projections and legal or investment advice. Accordingly, investing in private company securities is appropriate only for those investors who can tolerate a high degree of risk and do not require a liquid investment.

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